Eric Bottjer

Time changes some things. Money change more. Three years after Terenka Crawford rejected the idea of ​​fighting Canelo Alvarez on 168 pounds, here we are. Fifty million dollars can make many people brave. But when the money seduced Crawford, his way of thinking hit: “I will find a way to win.”

There is no doubt that Crawford is still a dog, not a businessman. When the bell rings, he imagines hundreds of times, as Canelo overcomes. This is not the fight we demanded. Nevertheless, it is fascinating because of the talent of people. Both are great all time who could compete with any boxer in history. There is no doubt that Canelo could fight any middle or super-medium from any era. The question is: can Crawford occur at this level at this weight. This year’s “Fight of the Century” is located between two immense boxers separated – at least according to natural weight – by two weight classes.

Crawford is not the only boxing person who thinks he is winning. Shawn Porter, Brian Norman, Christa Martin, Mike Tyson, Amir Khan, Tim Bradley – everyone sets the building. Although none of these people are experts, they know their activities. They choose Crawford because it has the following advantages:

1. Boxing IQ. Crawford is cheerful to watch boxes. He takes his times, observes his opponents early, pays flaws and repetitive mistakes they made, and then, if the fight enters the middle rounds, makes his man pay. Repeatedly.

2. It can effectively fight Southpaw’s attitude. And, equally critical, he knows when to return Southpaw.

3. Has a low mileage. Crawford has never been beaten. He had little fights that pushed him close to his limit. He turns 38 in two weeks. But he is a juvenile man in the slow 1930s.

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5. He knows his team and knows him. Coach Brian “Bo-Mac” McIntyre is with Bud from the very beginning.

To say, these advantages are petite. Canelo also has amazing IQ boxing. Canelo dealt with the skillful Southpaws at a high level (Erislanda Lara, Austin Trout, Billy Joe Saunders); He has been a younger man here for three years; Canelo is also oldschool and all your fights in the ring. And, like Bud, he has an excellent trainer who was there with Fight 1.

There is one clear advantage: size. Canelo has fought in the last 14 years in 154 pounds or higher. Crawford just moved to the neighborhood of the weight of lightweight. One match with Israel Madrimov. And Bud fought. And now he missed the average weight to collect his huge check against the great all time, hoping that the mass herself does not dictate the winner.

This situation of the size difference between immense has a precedent, with mixed results. James “Smitty” Smith and Lee Grows and I touched it recently in our podcast and we all remembered Leonard-Hagler. Hagler has passed the best. Like Canelo. Crawford was suspected at Leonard level. This fight turned out to be equal.

There is also Hagler-Duran, which can be a more correct comparison. Hagler has not been shot here. Duran moved many weight classes and made Hagler uncomfortable.

One fight is not mentioned, but Bears’s considering is when the welterweight master Jose Naples rose to the middle weight to face Carlos Monzon. People forget that Naples was justified. He lost once every 8 years when he faced Monzon, and it was in the cut. The died Napole could not answer the bell in seventh place. It was a size, not talent.

That’s what our judgment and history tell us. And what about the numbers, knowing, of course, include fights that do not match the talent of their current opponent or the size of today’s fight. Buda throws more blows to the round, but this number is distorted by the statistics of Punch Canelo-William. Scull ran, Canelo followed and rarely threw. In their previous two fights, Canelo on average 42 blows per round. Crawford on average the same compared to Spence and Madrimov, but doubled this performance in relation to David Avenesan.

In the above fights, Canelo landed about 41 percent of his blows and hit about 23 percent of the opponent’s strokes. Surprisingly, Bud landed only with a 28 % clip, and his opponents reached it in 25 percent.

Forecasts: Canelo from the decision