Islam Makhachev is no stranger to impressive title defenses, but for the first time, he enters the octagon as welterweight champion and against a challenger with no shortage of confidence.

What does Ian Machado Garry have to lose? Everyone expects Makhachev to run through him, but if Garry authors an upset, he could join Justin Gaethje, Ciryl Gane, and Sean Strickland on the list of underdogs that have turned the pound-for-pound rankings upside down. Let's see just how wacky 2026 can get.

Ahead of UFC 330 on Saturday, MMA Fighting's Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Damon Martin discuss what these defenses mean for champions Islam Makhachev and Mackenzie Dern, plus we pick our most intriguing undercard fight of the lineup.

1. Out of 10, how much of an upset would Ian Machado Garry beating Islam Makhachev be?

Lee: I'll put it at a solid 9, though I'm actually leaning closer to 8 because, well, look how things have gone for the (so-called) Pound-for-Pound elite this year.

In February, our top 4 P4P was Makhachev, Ilia Topuria, Alex Pereira, and Khamzat Chimaev. I don't know if you heard, but Topuria, Pereira, and Chimaev? All three caught losses. It's not unrealistic to think Makhachev could be next, especially given how Garry stacks up against him. “The Future†has size, skill, and—I say this in the most complimentary way possible—he's just damn annoying to fight.

Personally, a Garry win wouldn't crack the very top of my biggest upsets ever list (Serra over GSP, Peña over Nunes, Rockhold over Bisping, to name a few), though that shouldn't diminish his accomplishment if he somehow beats the best fighter in the world. I just won't be flabbergasted, that's all.

Heck: I'll give it 6.5. Is it an upset? Sure. Is it a major one? No. It wouldn't be the biggest shocker of the year. It wouldn't even be the second, and it might not even be in the top 5 of 2026 – that is, unless Garry absolutely destroys Makhachev.

Mahachev's résumé is equal parts impressive and weird. There are glaring names missing from his lightweight run, and as I've said many, many, many times, that's not his fault. Makhachev agreed and signed to fight the toughest dudes and it's in no way his problem if the opponents didn't make it to the fight. So I find myself wondering one question when it comes to this fight with Garry: Would this be the best win of Makhachev's career? Not in terms of star power or name value, but from a stylistic and level of difficulty perspective?

Honestly, I think it would be. Jack Della Maddalena couldn't have been a better matchup on paper for Makhachev, same with Charles Oliveira. Dustin Poirier overachieved, Renato Moicano had absolutely no chance and the second Alexander Volkanovski fight went the only way it could have under the circumstances. That probably leaves the first Volk fight as his best win and toughest fight based on where he was at. “IMG†isn't going to make this pretty, but he has shown an ability to take away a fighter's best weapon and stay out of danger. If Makhachev can find a way to steamroll a guy like him, it will be super impressive to me.

I'll also add that Machado Garry winning on Saturday will officially surpass Sean Strickland's first title win as the funniest outcome in the history of the sport.

Martin: Let's go 8 and that's mostly built around Garry being a really good welterweight, but not exactly a serious threat to hurt and/or knockout somebody like Makhachev.

Make no mistake, Garry earned this opportunity, especially with Shavkat Rakhmonov still sidelined with no real indication on when he might return. Garry has thumped former champions like Belal Muhammad and overall he's 10-1 in the UFC. Unfortunately, Garry's reputation lately has been built around delivering less than thrilling decisions that usually play out with the Irish welterweight simply outpointing his competition rather than actually running roughshod over anybody.

In other words, Garry finds ways to win, but he's not exactly thrilling anybody with his performances.

Against somebody like Makhachev, that just feels like disaster waiting to happen. Makhachev is one of the most well-rounded fighters on the planet and his grappling and submission skills are second to none. If he doesn't feel any real danger shooting inside, getting the clinch or just wrestling Garry to the ground, then it feels almost inevitable that Makhachev is going to bring this fight into his world and then it's just a matter of time before he scores a finish. Garry somehow countering that and actually hurting Makhachev or shutting down his grappling game enough to win a decision would be a massive upset no matter how you cut it.

2. Is Mackenzie Dern the true strawweight queen with a successful title defense?

Martin: Until Zhang Weili flat out declares that she's never fighting at strawweight again, Dern is going to live in her shadow.

That doesn't mean Dern should just gift-wrap her title and hand it over to Zhang—assuming she's coming back at 115 pounds—but it's impossible to ignore a great former champion from that division who never technically lost her belt. Zhang gave up the strawweight title to pursue a flyweight championship, but that didn't work out too well for her so right now she's kind of stuck in limbo.

But the moment Zhang declares her intention to return to strawweight, she immediately becomes the uncrowned champion. That shouldn't stop Dern from doing her thing. She's favored to beat Gillian Robertson and unless something truly wacky happens, that's a very winnable fight for her.

Dern doesn't have to look over her shoulder for now because Zhang hasn't said much of anything about her future lately. Until she does, the strawweight division still runs through one of the most dominant women's champions in the history of the UFC.

Lee: You know what? Yeah.

I'm picking Robertson to win (blatant Canada bias, I'm not proud), so that makes it even more meaningful to me if Dern manages to leave Philadelphia with gold around her waist. But even if you view this title defense as purely perfunctory, I still think a Dern win certifies her as the true strawweight champion. Sorry, Weili, you only get to pursue sidequests for so long before you have to relinquish your crown to a deserving successor.

Don't get me wrong, if Zhang vs. Dern gets booked, Zhang should be a -1000 favorite. But currently, it isn't, and there's a chance it doesn't happen anytime soon. Give Dern her flowers.

Heck: Has Zhang retired from fighting? Because that's the only way the answer is yes.

Look, I don't want to take away from Dern climbing the mountain and capturing gold. What she has accomplished is incredible and deserves praise, and Zhang made a choice to give up the belt to go up and try to be a two-division champion. But let's not kid ourselves with what the UFC is trying to accomplish here. They are trying to get Dern a title defense under her belt to make a fight with Zhang bigger. She should run over Robertson on Saturday. Pretty much everything Robertson brings to the table, Dern does better, outside of an outside wrestling takedown.

Robertson earned her shot, despite struggling a bit with a fighter she should've 30-24'd in her most recent outing. This co-main event checks off a couple of boxes on the road to the fight the UFC is trying to get to. But every time the UFC tries to do this, it falls apart, so we'll see how it plays out.

3. What's your UFC 330 low-key banger?

Heck: Guys, I don't know if you're aware, but this numbered event is nowhere near the quality of the past three, or the White House card, but it's still not the worst of the year. So finding low-key bangers is pretty easy.

I'll go with the second fight of the Jalin Turner comeback tour against Kaue Fernandes because it's going to be fun as hell for as long as it lasts, and I also expect Turner to get a highlight-reel finish that we'll be talking about when the card is over.

Martin: I'm going with Joel Alvarez vs. Chidi Njokuani providing some much needed fireworks on the prelim card. While this one came together on short notice with Alvarez jumping on the card very late in the process, the stakes are still high for both fighters. Njokuani is coming off two losses in a row and Alvarez just recently fell to Yaroslav Amosov, which stopped his four-fight win streak.

Both fighters are capable of producing a highlight-reel finish and while it's possible Njokuani or Alvarez plays it safe to avoid another loss, it's more likely they go out there and look for the kill to get back in the win column. This is the kind of matchup that could produce a jaw-dropping finish so don't blink when these two start throwing strikes on Saturday night.

Lee: I'm fully aware that pitting a 40-year-old Barboza in there with a certified killer like Esteban Ribovics is a recipe for sadness, but what can I say, I'm not ready to stop waving the Barboza flag just yet. For the longest time, Barboza was my de facto answer for “MMA fighter I'd pick to win any striking duel,†and while he's long past his prime, I still believe he can summon some of that old magic.

So no, I doubt Barboza wins, but I'm glad he's getting one last (?) main card appearance and an opponent who will engage him on his terms. Once more, with feeling.