Ian Machado Garry is finally getting his shot at UFC gold on Saturday, but he faces a daunting task going up against the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport in Islam Makhachev.
Currently riding a remarkable 16-fight win streak, Makhachev has effectively looked unstoppable at both lightweight and welterweight. He's heavily favored to win on Saturday night but Garry is obviously gunning for the upset and his chance to shock the world by beating Makhachev to win the title.
Retired UFC welterweight Matt Brown believes Garry has everything necessary to become champion one day, but he just doesn't see how the always outspoken Irishman gets past a brick wall like Makhachev.
“He is an extremely skilled guy,†Brown said about Garry on the latest episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer. “I've given him praises for a long time. I think he's got championship material in him. I don't doubt that he can make this a good fight. He's just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Had he got a fight with Jack Della Maddalena, I think it would be a 50/50 fight. But here's Islam Makhachev, the wrong guy at the wrong time.
“So much of that is in this sport. So much comes down to timing and matchups. It's just unfortunate for Ian. I think he does have championship potential. I'd love to see him against the other top guys, the [Carlos] Prates, Michael Morales and guys like that. But Islam is just about as bad of a matchup as you could possibly put together.â€
In the simplest terms as far as strategy goes, Garry almost certainly has to stop Makhachev's takedowns if he hopes to have any success on the feet.
While Garry is certainly an elite striker, he's not known for having true knockout power, which means he may have to outpoint Makhachev for 25 minutes to get the job done at UFC 330.
Anything is possible but Brown just doesn't see how Garry stays off the ground for the entire fight because Makhachev could potentially land one big takedown and his opponent never gets up again.
“He's got to stop his takedowns,†Brown said. “That's the big thing and then somehow win on points on the feet or land some big shots to make Islam a little bit shy of coming in again or lands some big shots and get a knockout, which Ian is just not known for. It's not like it couldn't happen. We still get these matchups from 1990 all the time: Striker versus grappler. Of course, Ian has good grappling and Islam has good striking so it's not as pure as it used to be, but I think we know very clearly what both people's game plans are here and it's just a matter of who can implement it.
“When you have someone at the level of Islam and his wrestling, it's just hard to imagine someone is going to catch up to that unless they've been wrestling their whole life.â€
On the feet, Garry may have an advantage but Brown says it's not as lopsided as the fight hitting the floor. Makhachev may not be known as an elite striker but he can handle himself in those exchanges and because he doesn't have to fear Garry's power as much, he can not only survive but potentially thrive.
“The biggest issue here is Ian being more of a decision guy and not really a power striking, knockout guy, Islam might be able to make some mistakes on the feet,†Brown explained. “Let's say Ian is able to keep it on the feet, Islam can still make mistakes theoretically, he can go a little bit further to get the takedown because he's not at risk.
“But again hypothetically on paper, if Ian makes one mistake on the ground, that's probably going to be it. You can't do silly things on the ground with Islam Makhachev. Charles Oliveira found that out.â€
Because Makhachev is such a nightmare matchup, Brown says Garry's only real chance is putting on an absolutely flawless performance and it's just hard for anybody to do that in a five-round fight. At some point, Brown anticipates that Garry is going to make a mistake and that's all Makhachev needs to seize the opening to finish the fight.
“Islam can make some mistakes, but Ian really can't,†Brown said. “He can't really make mistakes. Because Islam will capitalize on those mistakes. He has to fight the perfect fight. Islam doesn't really have to fight the perfect fight. He's just got to fight his fight.â€
Listen to new episodes of The Fighter vs. The Writer every Tuesday with audio only versions of the podcast available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeartRadio
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