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Info on the Paul-Joshua fight, NFL Week 16 and CFP race on a busy weekend at sportsbooks

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As someone who deals with gambling (though admittedly I’m bad at it), I’m hesitant to give much betting advice. But since it’s the holiday season, I’d like to offer one amiable suggestion to American bettors: the next time a social media influencer-turned-boxer faces an busy two-time heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist, don’t bet on the YouTube guy.

At DraftKings, 90% of the bets placed and 90% of the money placed on the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight were on the underdog Paul. The bookmaker said he could have lost nearly $100 million if Paul, who finished 10-1 as an underdog on DraftKings, got upset. Instead, Joshua, a -1600 favorite, knocked him out in the sixth round and gave the American players another robust breakthrough.

“We were pleased with the outcome – the book did well and it was great to see so much interest in boxing,” Johnny Avello, director of sports operations, told ESPN on Sunday.

Seven years ago, when undefeated boxing champion Floyd Mayweather faced the UFC’s Conor McGregor, professional bettors bet on Mayweather, calling it the best betting opportunity of their lives. Meanwhile, the betting public sided with McGregor, even though he had never boxed professionally. Mayweather wore down McGregor and eventually knocked him out.

Eight years later, betting observers clearly haven’t learned their lesson after Friday’s Paul-Joshua fight. Kalshi’s forecasting market had volume in excess of $74 million in this fight, including a reportedly $183,954 position on Paul taken by one unfortunate client.

At Caesars Sportsbook, the fight returned only 20% of the amount wagered on the College Football Playoff opener between Alabama and Oklahoma.

“The fighting method was comparable to that of North Carolina State and Memphis the previous day,” said Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook. “Some solid bets [on Joshua] He came in through the edged guys who knew how huge of a mismatch the fight should have been on paper.”

While most bettors took a long shot on Paul, there were a select few who were willing to risk a lot to win at least a little on Joshua. High-stakes bettor Christopher Dierkes called the fight “probably one of the biggest upsets in any big-stage sport.” He made the fight hard and believed that Joshua’s price, even this high, was still a bargain. He risked $1,077,044 that Paul would not win the fight and earned $157,549. He said he had basically only one fear before the fight.

“The real risk in my opinion was the hardware factor, which I thought was possible – obviously it’s boxing, crazier things have happened,” Dierkes, chief trading officer at sports prediction exchange Novig, told ESPN. “But I didn’t put too much stock in it, considering Joshua was very popular, already very wealthy, and unlikely to ruin his Jake Paul reputation.”

NFL odds and endings

  • On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Tennessee Titans as 3-point favorites. It was the Chiefs’ eighth loss this season in games in which they were betting favorites, tied with the 2014 Recent Orleans Saints, 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 1983 Recent York Jets for the most losses as a favorite in a single season in the Super Bowl era. The Chiefs have failed to overcome the spread in seven straight games, tied with the Buccaneers for the longest such busy streak.

  • The Carolina Panthers, who upset the Buccaneers as a compact underdog, picked up their eighth outright win of the season as an underdog, tying Washington in 2015 as the team with the most wins in a season as an underdog.

  • According to Feazel, the Seattle Seahawks’ Thursday victory over the Los Angeles Rams was the second-biggest win of the season for Caesars Sportsbook bettors. The biggest win for Caesars bettors was the Buffalo Bills’ 41-40 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.

College football odds

  • Alabama will start the week as a 7-point underdog against No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The Crimson Tide hasn’t finished a game with a lead of at least six points since the 2008 SEC Championship Game against Florida.

  • According to ESPN research, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has won 10 of his 14 games as an underdog in his coaching career, the best winning percentage of any coach who has been an underdog in at least 10 games since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

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Why Damian Knybas Claims Fail to Prove Andy Ruizs Comeback

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"Why Damian Knyba's Claims Fail to Prove Andy Ruiz's Comeback"
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The couch admission reinforces the criticism rather than answering it.

Knyba Can Make Ruiz Look His Age

Knyba lacks elite credentials, but his six-foot-seven frame and 86-inch reach present an awkward test for a short heavyweight returning from more than two years away. A persistent jab, movement, and clinching can prevent Ruiz from reaching the inside, where his hand speed carries the most value.

The former champion should win, particularly because Kabayel exposed Knyba’s difficulty handling sustained pressure. The question is how long Ruiz needs to find his range and how many punches he can produce once the fight extends beyond the early rounds.

The scale provides one encouraging sign. Ruiz was 268 pounds when he stopped Anthony Joshua in June 2019, then ballooned to 283.7 for their rematch. He weighed 274.4 against Jarrell Miller and faded following a fast start. Ruiz came in at 254.3 pounds Thursday, his lightest weight since 2018.

That shows he trained without establishing that his reflexes and conditioning have returned.

Nearly Seven Years Cannot Be Recovered

Since losing the Joshua rematch in December 2019, Ruiz has fought only three times. At 36, the former champion must do more than flatten a carefully selected opponent. He needs frequent fights against progressively stronger heavyweights.

Knyba offers Ruiz activity and confidence, nothing more. Beating him cannot erase nearly seven years of inconsistency or confirm that Ruiz remains among the elite. The real evidence will come later, if Ruiz follows through on his plan to fight again in December.

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Tommy Hitman Hearns Reflects on His Powerful Knockout Victory Over Barkley

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"Tommy 'Hitman' Hearns Reflects on His Powerful Knockout Victory Over Barkley"
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Barkley brought a 24-4 record and little of Hearns’ glamour. The Bronx pressure fighter had already failed in one title bid, losing a 15-round decision to Sumbu Kalambay in 1987. A fifth-round stoppage of Michael Olajide earned him another opportunity, but the 4-1 odds reflected how the public viewed it. Barkley was tough enough to absorb punishment, not skilled enough to defeat Hearns.

Those opening two rounds supported that judgment. Hearns controlled the distance with his long jab, drove right hands through Barkley’s guard, and ripped punches into the body. A cut opened above Barkley’s left eye in the first round. By the end of the second, he had also suffered a cut over his right eye and a laceration on his lower lip.

Each judge had Hearns ahead 20-18. He had landed 52 percent of his 157 punches, compared with 31 percent of 122 for Barkley. Attempting 157 in slightly more than eight minutes also revealed the risk hidden inside his dominance. He was not content to conduct a long-range boxing lesson. He kept stepping within Barkley’s reach to deliver sustained power combinations.

Such aggression ran against the safest strategy available to Hearns. His height, reach, jab, and superior hand speed allowed him to score without accepting equal danger. Once Barkley began bleeding, however, Hearns fought as though a stoppage was waiting to be collected. Instead of using his legs after each attack, he stayed in range to admire his work and reload.

Attacking the body was effective, but it required Hearns to spend more time at midrange. Barkley was being hurt without being physically displaced. Every combination gave him another chance to recognize when Hearns entered, which hand returned slowly, and where the champion moved after finishing.

Although Hearns had carried his power through several divisions, the added muscle did not eliminate defensive habits formed at lighter weights. He often held his lead hand near his waist before snapping the flicker jab upward from an unusual angle. Against shorter welterweights, that style made the jab difficult to read and created a long barrier they had to cross.

At 6-foot-1 and 160 pounds, Barkley was neither markedly shorter nor physically fragile. He possessed the thicker upper body of a natural middleweight, absorbed punches that had overwhelmed smaller opponents, and retained enough strength to throw with full force after taking sustained punishment.

Those injuries increased the urgency. With cuts above both eyes and another on his lip, Barkley could not count on receiving unlimited time. A cautious response would have let Hearns keep widening the lead while the damage worsened. Barkley instead accepted that he might have only a few opportunities left and began searching for one decisive counter.

Hearns’ low lead hand supplied the target. He repeatedly jabbed, lowered his left glove, and moved in the same direction after punching. Barkley started tracking that exit. He did not need to match Hearns’ speed if he could anticipate where the champion’s head would be.

Late in the third, Hearns jabbed and drifted to his left with the lead hand dropping. Barkley did not answer with a standard straight punch. His right hand traveled in an arc over the downward path of Hearns’ glove and entered the blind spot produced by the champion’s upright retreat.

It landed flush and instantly separated Hearns from his legs. Another right sent him flat onto his back.

Although Hearns managed to rise before referee Richard Steele completed the count, standing was not the same as recovering. His legs crossed beneath him, his posture remained unstable, and he could not establish a defensive position. Steele gave him an opportunity to continue because he had beaten the count, then watched Barkley drive him helplessly backward through the ropes.

Stopping the fight at 2:39 of the third round prevented Barkley from landing further unreturned punches. Steele did not need to diagnose what Hearns was seeing. The champion’s equilibrium and inability to protect himself supplied enough evidence.

Offensive control can conceal defensive danger, as the finish demonstrated. Hearns had the faster hands, straighter punches, and greater command of range. His high output magnified the cost of every lapse, while his desire to force a stoppage repeatedly placed him where Barkley’s heavier, looping punches could reach him.

Victory still required exceptional risk tolerance from Barkley. He had to withstand the jab, body shots, and right hands while staying within countering range. Bloodied and falling behind, he recognized one repeated flaw and committed fully to exploiting it.

The Ring named Barkley’s victory its 1988 Upset of the Year. Hearns briefly discussed retirement, then returned to defeat James Kinchen for the inaugural WBO super middleweight title. Barkley lost the WBC belt to Roberto Duran in his first defense the following February.

Four years later, Barkley challenged Hearns for the WBA light-heavyweight championship on March 20, 1992. In the fourth round, he countered a Hearns right hand with a left hook to score the fight’s only knockdown. That moment proved decisive when Barkley earned a split decision after 12 punishing rounds.

Barkley remains the only boxer to defeat Hearns twice. The first victory required him to survive a beating, identify one repeated flaw, and trust that a single right hand could erase everything that had happened before it.

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Ryan Garcia Reveals Undefeated Legend Assisting Conor Benn in Fight Preparation

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"Ryan Garcia Reveals Undefeated Legend Assisting Conor Benn in Fight Preparation"

Ryan Garcia will defend his WBC welterweight world title against Conor Benn next weekend, but the Californian believes that an undefeated legend is helping to train his opponent ahead of the fight.

Garcia claimed the title with an impressive triumph over Mario Barrios back in February and he now hopes that he can fulfil his potential and become the face of boxing, beginning with a high-profile clash with Benn.

Should he be victorious, ‘King Ry’ is eyeing up unification bouts against either Teofimo Lopez (WBA champion) or a rematch against WBO titleholder Devin Haney, as well a potential showdown with recently-retired pound-for-pound king Terence Crawford.

In a clip captured by The Ariel Helwani ShowGarcia revealed that he is aware that Crawford is currently helping Benn prepare for the contest, but believes that the assistance of ‘Bud’ will be of little use.

“You notice what they all have in common? They all sound bitter and hateful. Nothing good comes out of that, ever. They are all obviously bitter. I don’t really care what they think, at the end of the day, they can’t fight for Conor Benn, at all. They can’t punch for him.

“I know that Crawford is at Conor Benn’s gym, trying to give him every technique that he can give him, that s**t ain’t gonna help because I feel like I would beat your a**, so what are you gonna teach him?”

Garcia-Benn will go ahead on Saturday, September 12, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with Benn set to move up in weight straight afterwardsregardless of the outcome of the fight.

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