As someone who deals with gambling (though admittedly I’m bad at it), I’m hesitant to give much betting advice. But since it’s the holiday season, I’d like to offer one amiable suggestion to American bettors: the next time a social media influencer-turned-boxer faces an busy two-time heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist, don’t bet on the YouTube guy.
At DraftKings, 90% of the bets placed and 90% of the money placed on the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight were on the underdog Paul. The bookmaker said he could have lost nearly $100 million if Paul, who finished 10-1 as an underdog on DraftKings, got upset. Instead, Joshua, a -1600 favorite, knocked him out in the sixth round and gave the American players another robust breakthrough.
“We were pleased with the outcome – the book did well and it was great to see so much interest in boxing,” Johnny Avello, director of sports operations, told ESPN on Sunday.
Seven years ago, when undefeated boxing champion Floyd Mayweather faced the UFC’s Conor McGregor, professional bettors bet on Mayweather, calling it the best betting opportunity of their lives. Meanwhile, the betting public sided with McGregor, even though he had never boxed professionally. Mayweather wore down McGregor and eventually knocked him out.
Eight years later, betting observers clearly haven’t learned their lesson after Friday’s Paul-Joshua fight. Kalshi’s forecasting market had volume in excess of $74 million in this fight, including a reportedly $183,954 position on Paul taken by one unfortunate client.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the fight returned only 20% of the amount wagered on the College Football Playoff opener between Alabama and Oklahoma.
“The fighting method was comparable to that of North Carolina State and Memphis the previous day,” said Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook. “Some solid bets [on Joshua] He came in through the edged guys who knew how huge of a mismatch the fight should have been on paper.”
While most bettors took a long shot on Paul, there were a select few who were willing to risk a lot to win at least a little on Joshua. High-stakes bettor Christopher Dierkes called the fight “probably one of the biggest upsets in any big-stage sport.” He made the fight hard and believed that Joshua’s price, even this high, was still a bargain. He risked $1,077,044 that Paul would not win the fight and earned $157,549. He said he had basically only one fear before the fight.
“The real risk in my opinion was the hardware factor, which I thought was possible – obviously it’s boxing, crazier things have happened,” Dierkes, chief trading officer at sports prediction exchange Novig, told ESPN. “But I didn’t put too much stock in it, considering Joshua was very popular, already very wealthy, and unlikely to ruin his Jake Paul reputation.”
NFL odds and endings
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Tennessee Titans as 3-point favorites. It was the Chiefs’ eighth loss this season in games in which they were betting favorites, tied with the 2014 Recent Orleans Saints, 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 1983 Recent York Jets for the most losses as a favorite in a single season in the Super Bowl era. The Chiefs have failed to overcome the spread in seven straight games, tied with the Buccaneers for the longest such busy streak.
The Carolina Panthers, who upset the Buccaneers as a compact underdog, picked up their eighth outright win of the season as an underdog, tying Washington in 2015 as the team with the most wins in a season as an underdog.
According to Feazel, the Seattle Seahawks’ Thursday victory over the Los Angeles Rams was the second-biggest win of the season for Caesars Sportsbook bettors. The biggest win for Caesars bettors was the Buffalo Bills’ 41-40 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.
College football odds
Alabama will start the week as a 7-point underdog against No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The Crimson Tide hasn’t finished a game with a lead of at least six points since the 2008 SEC Championship Game against Florida.
According to ESPN research, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has won 10 of his 14 games as an underdog in his coaching career, the best winning percentage of any coach who has been an underdog in at least 10 games since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.
Top trainer and former world champion Robert Garcia has considered the outcome of a fantasy showdown between Terence Crawford and Manny Pacquiao.
The two generational greats reportedly came close to squaring off in 2021, back when Crawford was the WBO welterweight champion and ‘Pac Man’ held the WBA title.
Their unification match never materialised, though, as Pacquiao was scheduled to face Errol Spence Jr before ‘The Truth’ pulled out with a torn retina.
Instead, the Filipino legend ended up losing his WBA title to Yordenis Ugas at a stage when, while still serviceable, he was quite clearly past his best.
Crawford, meanwhile, was hitting top form around this time, just a few fights away from producing arguably a career-best performance against Spence.
He did, of course, manage to stop his welterweight rival in nine rounds, before moving up to 168lbs and becoming a three-division undisputed champion by dethroning Canelo Alvarez last September.
Based on those two performances, coach Garcia has told ESNEWS that he would favour ‘Bud’ to defeat even a prime version of Pacquiao.
“The Crawford that beat Spence – and the Crawford that beat Canelo – would probably beat Manny.”
While Crawford’s prime almost certainly came during his run of eight stoppages at welterweight, it is harder to pinpoint when Pacquiao ultimately reached his peak.
In terms of his most destructive performance at world level, however, many will point towards his second-round finish over Ricky Hatton in 2009.
While facing the ‘Hitman’ at 140lbs, Pacquiao would cement himself as a formidable welterweight champion soon after, dethroning Miguel Cotto with a 12th-round stoppage for the WBO title.
Former world champion Oleksandr Gvozdyk has been left between a rock and a hard place afterhis promotional contract with Zuffa Boxing has been terminated.
The Ukrainian dethroned long-reigning light-heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson in 2018, scoring an 11th-round stoppage that left his opponent with a brain injury.
Gvozdyk then made a WBC title defence before losing to Artur Beterbievwho extended his ruthless surge with a 10th-round finish in their 2019 encounter.
Since that defeat, ‘The Nail’ suffered a unanimous decision loss to David Benavidez in 2024, before entering a perceived 50/50 contest against Radivoje ‘Hot Rod’ Kalajdzic in February.
With both making their Zuffa debut, the two veterans delivered a thrilling battle in which Gvozdyk scored two knockdowns and had built a sizable lead.
In round seven, though, the 39-year-old found himself on the canvas and was ultimately stopped on his feet after getting dropped a second time.
Given his overall performance, one would suspect he had done enough to justify another meaningful opportunity, yet Gvozdyk has since told vRINGe that he will no longer be fighting under the Zuffa banner.
“They terminated the contract in February after a loss. That is, every promoter has the option that if a boxer loses, they have the right to terminate the contract. That’s exactly what they did. After the fight, everyone was saying how great it was. That everything was great. I rested. I started preparing as planned – somewhere around May. And then, around April, they told me I’d received an email terminating the contract.”
This is because his contract has been terminated, while Kalajdzic’s next outing with Dana White’s promotional outfit is confirmed for September 26 against Craig Richards.
As for Gvozdyk, it is difficult to predict what will come next but, at the age of 39, one would suspect that he is close to hanging up the gloves.
Still, he could hardly have been happy to part ways with Zuffa, which also terminated its contract with Robert Meriwether following his defeat to Tony Hirsch Jr in April.
Former British champion and Olympic bronze medallist David Price has assessed whether his countryman, Conor Bennpossesses the necessary hand speed to defeat Ryan Garcia.
The two welterweights will square off at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on September 12, with Garcia making a first defence of his WBC world title.
It was arguably a career-best performance that saw him dethrone Mario Barrios in February, scoring a first-round knockdown before winning a wide unanimous decision.
But despite coming off this dominant display, Garcia was far less impressive when he returned from a year-long doping ban and lost on points to Rolando Romero in May 2025.
Still, many would argue that the 28-year-old has shown signs of world-class quality, while Benn remains glaringly unproven at the top level.
The 29-year-old has also not fought at 147lbs since 2022, with his last two outings resulting in unanimous decision victories over faded versions of Chris Eubank Jr and Regis Prograis.
Against Eubank, in particular, Benn’s speed seemed a key factor in their two middleweight encounters last year, despite him suffering a points defeat the first time around.
As he approaches this welterweight contest against Garcia, though, former heavyweight contender Price has told The Smith Brothers that he sees Benn contending with an unfamiliar disadvantage.
“I think I [favour Garcia]. Conor Benn’s got great hand speed, but I think [Garcia’s] hand speed could make the difference in the fight.”
Like Garcia, Benn tested positive for a banned substance – clomifene – and was eventually removed from his cancelled 2022 encounter with Eubank.