We all acknowledge that Canelo isn’t in his peak years anymore, but looking at the actual landscape around him right now, is there anyone at 168, or who could come up from 160, you think would beat Canelo Alvarez?

Canelo was sharp against Christian Mbilli, but I never thought Mbilli would beat or even really trouble Canelo too much. And that’s what you look for, even today, even with Canelo faded: It has to be a really, really good fighter, and the right kind of fighter.

It wasn’t Mbilli, and it’s not going to be Lester Martinez, either. I wouldn’t mind seeing that fight, because Martinez has earned it as much as one earns shots at belts in boxing, and maybe Martinez would prove me wrong. I’m certainly not saying he’s a 0% chance to win, but on paper I don’t see it.

Hamzah Sheeraz is the fighter TurkiCo seems to want in the spot, and there are aspects there that seem potentially interesting, but Sheeraz’s so-so showings in other fights don’t inspire much confidence. Osleys Iglesisas might be the guy, but he’d also be taking a huge step up in competition, and you can’t forget that; basically the same step up that Mbilli just took. I’m not saying they aren’t good fighters, but the records built in Quebec are not filled with world class opposition.

I don’t honestly see anyone at 168 or 160 that beats Canelo right now, next fight out. I just don’t think there’s anyone there who’s good enough right now; a couple of them would be in time, perhaps, but we’re not talking about two or three years from now.

It’s an interesting question, and I’ll just preface the rest of my response by highlighting the fact there’s a difference between would and could. I say that to say this: I actually thought Canelo looked really sharp against Mbilli, with his reaction time and defense on point. But even though Canelo is a fighter with elite level skill, he’s still an aging fighter. Aging athletes in general never forget what to do, but the most noticeable decline is consistency in their performances.

The older and more worn, the less consistently they can perform at the levels they’re accustomed to. In that respect I would compare Canelo to an older pitcher. On some nights he’ll still have some of his best stuff and on those nights he’ll look good, but he’s not going to consistently bring his best stuff anymore, and on the nights he doesn’t he’ll be vulnerable to a potential slip up.

If I’m just estimating, I think there’s 0% chance we’ll ever see Canelo in better form than we just saw him, about a 35% chance he can match the form we just saw, and about a 65% chance that he has something less to offer on a given night. If Canelo can duplicate his most recent performance, I can’t honestly say that any fighter between 160-168 would beat him right now, but I do think it’s more likely than not that he’s in worse form. In that case I’d say perhaps someone like Yoenli Hernandez, and to a lesser extent Carlos Adames or Hamzah Sheeraz could potentially give him a run for his money, but it’s certainly far from a sure thing.

The cheeky answer would be Erislandy Lara, since there was so much controversy over his split decision loss to Canelo at the time. But, I don’t think Lara actually won that fight, and I certainly don’t think that a 43 year old Lara moving up to super middleweight would beat Canelo in 2026.

I think that, given the landscape, there’s really just one guy at the weight with an argument right now: Osleys Iglesias. It would be a huge step up for Iglesias, but part of that is his difficulty getting a major fight yet given how formidable he looks. The people who have beaten Canelo, officially or otherwise, had exceptional skill and enough stopping power to keep him honest. Iglesias looks like he checks both boxes. I’d love to see him get the chance.

Otherwise, you’re looking down at 154 lbs and trying to guess if someone like Boots or Fundora can do it, because I don’t think anyone at middleweight is a realistic threat.

My Hiroo Onoda answer is that David Benavidez was the guy. The one weird trick to beating Canelo seems to be a refusal to let him get comfortable and Benavidez’s kit is perfect for that: height, reach, volume, hand speed, offensive variety, and criminally underrated defense. Him losing the WBC belt by failing to make weight against Roamer Alexis F*ckin’ Angulo right as Canelo kicked off his undisputed super middleweight chase is up there with the butterfly ballots in “things that make me want to run full-speed into a brick wall if I think about them too hard.”

As for who can do it now, the only guys who seem like they belong in the conversation are Janibek Alimkhanuly and Osleys Iglesias. The kings of the heap at 160 are Carlos Adames and Old Man Lara, whom nobody in their right minds would pick to topple Canelo, and who else is there at 168? Diego Pacheco and Hamzah Sheeraz, who looked pedestrian against far lesser opposition and clearly want no smoke whatsoever? Lester Martinez could be interesting and will be next for Canelo if Mauricio Sulaiman keeps his word (lmao), but I’m not sold after his own performance against Christian Mbilli.

Alimkhanuly has the technical pedigree to potentially find the holes in Canelo’s ultra-optimized game and the physical abilities to exploit them. Iglesias isn’t quite as credentialed, but his speed and power are at or near the division’s peak and that pile bunker jab of his is the sort of disruptive weapon that could give Canelo fits. That said, I’d still favor Canelo over either.