Navarrete vs Foster: Recent Form

Remember when people thought Emanuel Navarrete was on his way down or even out? “Vaquero” had joked about eating Twinkies during training. He drew with Robson Conceicao. He lost to Denys Berinchyk. He got a nutritionist.

In his last three fights, Navarrete has dominated Oscar Valdez (again), had a tough one and some controversy in a no-contest with Charly Suarez, and dominated and stopped Eduardo “Sugar” Nunez. He’s looked like he’s back to peak form Emanuel Navarrete, and peak form Emanuel Navarrete is a problem.

The “Twinkies” stuff is in the past, though like many things, it will probably hang around him forever in fight build-ups. The version of Navarrete we saw against Nunez is one of the sport’s better fighters.

But he is beatable. We’ve seen it. And it wasn’t long ago. The Suarez fight was another reminder that he’s far from flawless. If Navarrete has a tough opponent, it will be a tough fight, as fights with tough opponents ought to be.

Foster is one of my favorite boxing stories of recent years, a good-but-not-great prospect in the mid-2010s who suffered a couple of losses on ShoBox in eight-rounders and looked like maybe the bubble had burst on him. He might fight on, but we wouldn’t hear much. Maybe he’d return to ShoBox in the B-side role sometime. Instead, he reset his career, got better, moved down to 130, and in 2023, won his first world title, seven years after his second loss, battling back from square one to do it.

O’Shaquie is 15-1 since his two losses in 2015-16. His only loss since came to Robson Conceicao, who has been tough as hell for anyone at 130/135 other than Shakur Stevenson and Raymond Muratalla, and the latter might have had more to do with the fact that Conceicao was 37 by then. Foster also avenged his loss to Conceicao and comes into this one, as Navarrete does, in fine form in his most recent outings, beating Stephen Fulton and Raymond Ford.

We’ve got a good fight on our hands with two guys who have looked good in their recent fights and, at 31 (Navarrete) and 33 (Foster), still look to be right in their prime years.

Navarrete vs Foster: Style Matchup

A disclaimer in the interest of transparency: I find “Vaquero” fascinating and almost certainly had my mind made up before I booted up the tape.

A lot’s been made of how Navarrete “gets away” with fighting “wrong” thanks to his motor, power, durability, and freakish proportions. His last time out against “Sugar” Nunez, the commentators quipped that nobody in their right mind would train someone to fight that way. These people are, to be blunt, wrong as hell; he’s an excellent case study in maximizing one’s natural gifts and doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his craft. Watch the Nunez fight and take note of how well he controls distance, how often he’s just a hair too far away for Nunez’s counters, the way he threads punches between Nunez’s volleys, the exploitation of his dramatic step-ins to get Nunez biting on feints, the genuinely solid defensive movement and arm placement that follow his lunges. Crude as a lot of his punches are and as…let’s say “improvisational” his footwork is, there’s a system there. Yes, he does stupid shit, but he does it smartly.

This puts him in delightful contrast with Foster, who’s among the most textbook sweet scientists in the game. A human highlight reel he is not, but after our last few prediction pieces, do you know how refreshing it is to see someone who keeps his off hand up when jabbing and generally avoids smothering his work?

What makes this such a fun matchup is their near-identical physical dimensions. Both of them are used to operating at distances where their opponents can’t retaliate, and the one who’s best able to adjust to this new environment will come out on top.

That looks, to me, like Navarrete. Foster’s only real weakness is a lack of head movement, but it’s a big one in this matchup. Navarrete has excellent timing and shot selection to catch opponents on the way in and can put on some murderous pressure when the fancy strikes. If Foster hits the ropes or tries to chase, it’ll go sideways fast.

Conversely, Foster isn’t particularly well-equipped to exploit Navarrete’s own weaknesses. For as much as Navarrete overextends, he’s generally good about only throwing truly ugly stuff when it’s hard to punish and Foster lacks the power to capitalize on those opportunities. On a similar note, Navarrete can be too content to chill in a collapsed pocket, but was still nasty enough to outgun Nunez at the latter’s preferred range. Don’t see that working overly well for Foster, either.

But let’s say Foster does force the fight he wants, a cagey fencing match. It’s more than feasible, as he’s got much better feet than Navarrete and his punches get to the target faster. That’s where the real kicker comes in: pace. Foster’s preferred output is “just enough,” which has led to truly putrid sparring matches in the past. Navarrete can throw 70 punches a round for 36 minutes, is too durable to deter, and is more adaptable than his reputation would have you believe.

It’s a hell of a needle Foster has to thread. I don’t think he can.

Navarrete vs Foster: Predictions!

Scott: Big fan of both these guys. I think the smart money is probably with Navarrete, but I’m going with O’Shaquie in a tight, controversially-scored fight. I wouldn’t advise betting that way, but I think he’ll edge this one out, I expect him to be as up for this one as he’s ever been for any fight, this is really the biggest fight of his career. What I’m most looking forward to seeing is what range dominates the fight, and who imposes their will best in that sense. O’Shaquie Foster by Split Decision

Patrick: Historically, the best way to deal with Emanuel Navarrete is to hope he didn’t train and wait for him to peter out. With his shiny new nutritionist in his corner, that avenue may be closed forever; he shrugged off some nasty body work from Nunez and was still clobbering him with abandon as the championship rounds approached.

Foster is an extremely capable fighter, unquestionably the other best man at 130. If it’s possible to defuse a dialed-in Navarrete with pure fundamentals, Foster’s the guy to do it. I just think his own shortcomings, namely the stationary head and tendency to fall into lulls, play too much into Navarrete’s strengths for me to put my faith in him. Belt number three for the cowboy. Emanuel Navarrete by Unanimous Decision