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Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman: Picks, Predictions and More

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Sebastian Fundora will put the WBC junior middleweight title on the line against Keith Thurman on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video PPV, 7:00 p.m. ET).

Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KO) won the belt with a split decision victory over Tim Tszyu in March 2024 and has since defended twice, including a seventh-round TKO in the rematch last July.

At 6 feet 5½ inches and with an 80-inch reach, Fundora presents a unique challenge to anyone in the division. While he has the tools to fight at a distance, the southpaw is equally adept at interior combat, where he uses his strength and body attack to wear down his opponents. He enters the fight as a -380 favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Thurman (31-1, 23 KO), a former unified welterweight champion, has been largely inactive since a split decision loss to Manny Pacquiao in September 2019. He has had just two fights since then, most recently in March 2025 when he moved up to junior middleweight and defeated Brock Jarvis in three rounds – the only in-ring action he had seen in over four years.

Still, Thurman’s experience could make a difference. In his prime, he fought many of the best welterweights. He has always shown good footwork and will have to rely on his movement to avoid falling in front of the much taller Fundora. Thurman also has power in both hands, and his right hand could be a key punch in a fight against a distance champion.

Will Fundora apply his size, youth and relentless body attack to break down the veteran? Or can Thurman, a +280 underdog, apply his experience and power to catch Fundora and cause an upset?

Former champions Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia and Raul Marquez describe the fight and present their picks.


Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion

How does Thurman win?

I think there are many ways for Thurman to win. I’d like to see him apply his movement and then when he gets close, go to the body. Then turn, go around, close, or whatever else we need to do to prevent Fundora from taking any hits. I think this is a great way to break down Fundora and force him to give up his height, which is a weakness we’ve seen throughout most of his career until his last two fights. Thurman can box and move towards victory.

Thurman could win by knockout. It’s not necessarily the case that Brian Mendoza had a one-punch knockout over Fundora, although we know Thurman has that power. People always criticize if he had it at 147 and wonder if he had it at 154. Trust me, if he had it at 147, he would have more power at 154 and should probably fight at 160. Athleticism creates his strength, and that power can beat Fundora.

How does Fundora win?

I don’t think Fundora can afford to keep the fight outside and boxing all night long. Although he has longer arms and a taller frame, he is not proficient in using them. He must force the fight to be close quarters and respond defensively once he lets go of his hands. I think this is the only path to success for him. He needs to get in close and break Thurman down like he has done to other opponents. If he doesn’t break it, the fight will be up in the air. Ultimately, this is Fundora’s fight to lose.

Who wins?

I always support the B team, so I think I’ll beat Thurman by knockout.


Raul Marquez, former American Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst

Duel

Thurman is 37 years aged. I remember fighting for the middleweight title against Arthur Abraham when I was 37 years aged. Abraham was a monster and I was not the same. I think Fundora is now a monster for Thurman. Thurman was also inactive. Yes, he has extensive experience fighting top fighters such as Manny Pacquiao, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo and Julio Diaz. But I don’t see him winning this fight. When you’re 37 years aged and you’re fighting a guy like Fundora, who I think has gotten better and is in great shape, I just don’t see Thurman having the firepower he had when he was younger – mostly due to inactivity.

How does Fundora win?

He just has to be himself, apply his height and reach for the advantage. He needs to control his range early, figure out Thurman and apply his jab. Get in there and make Thurman work, then break him down. Operate body shots and uppercuts while maintaining a rapid pace. He’s fighting an older guy who likes to fight at his own pace, so don’t let him do that. Fundora has a very good defense, so he will have to be prepared for things that Thurman can prepare due to his experience.

How does Thurman win?

Strike a blow, get close. And that’s something he can do because Fundora also likes to fight in close quarters. I know Thurman has been working on using his distance. Thurman is rapid, but I think Fundora is ready for it. Since the fight with Brian Mendoza, his condition has improved; he learned a lot from this loss. He is mature and very disciplined. Thurman can only win if Fundora makes a mistake and becomes haphazard.

Thurman is an in-and-out fighter. But he won’t have the legs to do it for 12 rounds with a fighter like Fundora attacking him. I think Thurman will keep him vigorous. At some point he’s going to have to stand there and fight shoulder to shoulder, and it won’t be his fight because he won’t have his legs there. The only thing he could do was to strike strenuous, using his experience and choosing his moments. Step inside and catch it from a different perspective. He could also catch it from a long distance, but it had to be a right punch – a right from above or a left hook. He has the power to drop it, but it’s the only way. It won’t beat Fundora.

Who wins?

Fundora by stoppage at the end of the round. I think the horn will stop it. I don’t think Thurman can survive, especially at his age. The deeper the fight, the more hard it will be for him.


Danny Garcia, former junior welterweight and welterweight champion

How does Fundora win?

Take advantage of his youth, apply sharp pressure and keep Thurman in the final punches. Fundora should try to break the inactive Thurman. If he does that, I can see him winning by TKO at the end.

How does Thurman win?

Take advantage of his experience. Operate quick feet, sharp and tight defense, frustrate Fundora and try to land powerful, looping punches. If he does that, he could score a late-round KO like Mendoza did against Fundora.

Who wins?

I don’t see this fight having the distance. Thurman by KO.

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Austin Williams Challenges Vito Mielnickis Contender Claims in High-Stakes Showdown

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"Austin Williams Challenges Vito Mielnicki's Contender Claims in High-Stakes Showdown"
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Gardzielik was dropped and lost every round on all three scorecards. Nmomah offered limited resistance before being stopped in the ninth. Huerta went the distance but lost 100-90, 100-90, and 99-91. Those victories showed Mielnicki can dominate carefully selected opposition. They did not demonstrate that he is prepared for a championship fight.

Top Rank moved Mielnicki methodically by matching him against fighters with attractive records but little recognition in the United States. The approach helped him collect regional belts and climb the sanctioning-body rankings without facing anyone near the top of the middleweight class.

The more revealing performances came against Khalil El Harraz and Connor Coyle. Mielnicki edged El Harraz by majority decision and then struggled to a majority draw with Coyle. The New York State Athletic Commission later changed the Coyle result to a no-contest after he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, but the ruling did not erase what happened during those 10 rounds.

Mielnicki believes beating Williams would answer criticism of rankings that place him No. 3 with the WBO, No. 7 with the WBA and WBC, and No. 9 with the IBF.

“I feel like having a name like him on my resume will silence a lotta that,” Mielnicki told Keith Idec of The Ring.

Williams (20-2, 13 KOs) is a considerable upgrade. The physically strong southpaw applies pressure and can make Mielnicki fight while moving backward, an area that the trio was not equipped to test. Mielnicki must show that his footwork and inside game hold up when an opponent closes the distance and refuses to remain at his preferred pace.

Still, beating Williams would not establish Mielnicki as one of the best at 160. Hamzah Sheeraz stopped Williams, and Carlos Adames defeated him decisively over 12 rounds. Williams occupies the middle of the first tier: capable enough to expose a protected contender, but well below the elite.

That makes him an appropriate screening test. A Mielnicki loss in his New Jersey backyard would make his lofty rankings difficult to defend. A convincing win would earn him the opportunity to face the leading middleweights, not prove he is ready to beat them.

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Canelo Set to Defeat Mbilli Before Epic Showdown with KO Artist in Historic Boxing Match

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"Canelo Set to Defeat Mbilli Before Epic Showdown with KO Artist in Historic Boxing Match"

Canelo Alvarez is set to challenge for the WBC super-middleweight world title next month, looking to re-establish himself as the man to beat in the 168lb division. World-renowned trainer Robert Garcia has laid out his prediction for the fight, as well as what the future might hold.

Canelo became the first undisputed world champion in the history of the super-middleweight division when he finished off an eleven-month run of collecting belts by knocking out Caleb Plant back in 2021. He defended his four belts on five occasions.

Alvarez then dropped the IBF super-middleweight crown but soon trumped William Scull to win it back and become a two-time undisputed ruler, before losing all four of his belts to Terence Crawford in an iconic showdown 12 months ago. Crawford retired shortly afterwards, scattering the titles.

Since then, Canelo has been sidelined due to an elbow injurywhilst Mbilli has been elevated from interim status to full WBC world champion, with former opponent Lester Martinez taking his place as Interim titleholder.

Robert Garcia – who trains the likes of Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez and Vergil Ortiz Jr – recently told YSM Sports Media that he believes Canelo will win his title back against Mbilli, before outlining his hopes to see Canelo take on Guatemala’s Martinez at the near 90,000-capacity Estadio Azteca.

“I think that Canelo does have enough to beat Mbilli and then Canelo versus Lester [Martinez] would be one of the biggest fights in history, it is two countries against each other, two countries that are going to celebrate a big event in a huge soccer stadium – that would be huge.

“From what I understand, they want Canelo at Estadio Azteca. Imagine him versus Lester at the Estadio Azteca, it would be unbelievable.”

The Estadio Azteca has twice staged boxing events, first hosting Vicente Saldivar’s unified featherweight title defence against Howard Winstone in 1965 and then Julio Cesar Chavez’s famous victory over Greg Haugen in front of a record-breaking 132,247 spectators in 1993.

Martinez, following his latest stoppage win over Luka Plantic, made no secret of his desire to face the winner of Mbilli-Canelo.

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Lester Martinez Awaits Canelo Mbilli Showdown: Who Will Emerge Victorious?

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"Lester Martinez Awaits Canelo Mbilli Showdown: Who Will Emerge Victorious?"
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Martinez was much more effective and landed the harder punches. Lester had the support of the Guatemalan people with a healthy attendance of 6,848 at the USC Galen Center. The interim WBC super middleweight champion is the only boxing champion of any kind for Guatemala; Martinez is held in high esteem, receiving the full support of his country. After the victory, he celebrated at Lafayette Park at the Festival Chapin with his fellow countrymen.

ProBox promoter Garry Jonas stated at the post-fight press conference they’re exploring the options of holding a Lester Martinez fight at a soccer stadium somewhere in Guatemala, hopefully for January of 2027. The energy and crowd at the Galen Center was electrifying as the crowd would erupt in cheers every time Lester would land a big punch.

Holding an event in Guatemala would definitely draw a crowd. Lester is becoming a bigger star with every fight, and if he’s able to secure a fight with the winner of the Canelo Alvarez-Christian Mbilli fight, he would only become that much bigger. Trainer Esau Dieguez said of the fight, “The truth is we would like to face the winner, but because of name recognition and what it would bring, we would like to fight Canelo. Being that we already fought Mbilli, but I expect Canelo to win. I think Canelo will win, I hope we can make the fight. I know the WBC may beat around the bush, but our hope is Lester will fight for the full world title.”

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It was the fight against Mbilli that raised Lester’s profile and introduced him to the world. Although it was ruled a draw, there are many who believe Martinez should have been awarded the decision. Lester stood toe-to-toe with the power puncher, exchanging punch for punch with him. Martinez outlanded Mbilli 412 to 273 in total punches, outlanding him in 9 of 12 rounds (Compubox).

He tried securing the rematch with Christian, but the fight never materialized. Expecting a tough fight against the Canelo-Mbilli winner, Lester said, “I think for now I will relax, but I know what is coming will be more difficult, and we will prepare for it.”

Knowing that he will have to perform at his absolute best against whomever the winner may be. Lester has proven he has the skills to compete at the championship level, and he has the full support of an entire country with him in Guatemala; they want nothing more than to have their first full world champion.

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