Sebastian Fundora will put the WBC junior middleweight title on the line against Keith Thurman on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video PPV, 7:00 p.m. ET).

Fundora (23-1-1, 15 KO) won the belt with a split decision victory over Tim Tszyu in March 2024 and has since defended twice, including a seventh-round TKO in the rematch last July.

At 6 feet 5½ inches and with an 80-inch reach, Fundora presents a unique challenge to anyone in the division. While he has the tools to fight at a distance, the southpaw is equally adept at interior combat, where he uses his strength and body attack to wear down his opponents. He enters the fight as a -380 favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Thurman (31-1, 23 KO), a former unified welterweight champion, has been largely inactive since a split decision loss to Manny Pacquiao in September 2019. He has had just two fights since then, most recently in March 2025 when he moved up to junior middleweight and defeated Brock Jarvis in three rounds – the only in-ring action he had seen in over four years.

Still, Thurman’s experience could make a difference. In his prime, he fought many of the best welterweights. He has always shown good footwork and will have to rely on his movement to avoid falling in front of the much taller Fundora. Thurman also has power in both hands, and his right hand could be a key punch in a fight against a distance champion.

Will Fundora apply his size, youth and relentless body attack to break down the veteran? Or can Thurman, a +280 underdog, apply his experience and power to catch Fundora and cause an upset?

Former champions Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia and Raul Marquez describe the fight and present their picks.

Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion

How does Thurman win?

I think there are many ways for Thurman to win. I’d like to see him apply his movement and then when he gets close, go to the body. Then turn, go around, close, or whatever else we need to do to prevent Fundora from taking any hits. I think this is a great way to break down Fundora and force him to give up his height, which is a weakness we’ve seen throughout most of his career until his last two fights. Thurman can box and move towards victory.

Thurman could win by knockout. It’s not necessarily the case that Brian Mendoza had a one-punch knockout over Fundora, although we know Thurman has that power. People always criticize if he had it at 147 and wonder if he had it at 154. Trust me, if he had it at 147, he would have more power at 154 and should probably fight at 160. Athleticism creates his strength, and that power can beat Fundora.

How does Fundora win?

I don’t think Fundora can afford to keep the fight outside and boxing all night long. Although he has longer arms and a taller frame, he is not proficient in using them. He must force the fight to be close quarters and respond defensively once he lets go of his hands. I think this is the only path to success for him. He needs to get in close and break Thurman down like he has done to other opponents. If he doesn’t break it, the fight will be up in the air. Ultimately, this is Fundora’s fight to lose.

Who wins?

I always support the B team, so I think I’ll beat Thurman by knockout.

Raul Marquez, former American Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst

Duel

Thurman is 37 years aged. I remember fighting for the middleweight title against Arthur Abraham when I was 37 years aged. Abraham was a monster and I was not the same. I think Fundora is now a monster for Thurman. Thurman was also inactive. Yes, he has extensive experience fighting top fighters such as Manny Pacquiao, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, Robert Guerrero, Luis Collazo and Julio Diaz. But I don’t see him winning this fight. When you’re 37 years aged and you’re fighting a guy like Fundora, who I think has gotten better and is in great shape, I just don’t see Thurman having the firepower he had when he was younger – mostly due to inactivity.

How does Fundora win?

He just has to be himself, apply his height and reach for the advantage. He needs to control his range early, figure out Thurman and apply his jab. Get in there and make Thurman work, then break him down. Operate body shots and uppercuts while maintaining a rapid pace. He’s fighting an older guy who likes to fight at his own pace, so don’t let him do that. Fundora has a very good defense, so he will have to be prepared for things that Thurman can prepare due to his experience.

How does Thurman win?

Strike a blow, get close. And that’s something he can do because Fundora also likes to fight in close quarters. I know Thurman has been working on using his distance. Thurman is rapid, but I think Fundora is ready for it. Since the fight with Brian Mendoza, his condition has improved; he learned a lot from this loss. He is mature and very disciplined. Thurman can only win if Fundora makes a mistake and becomes haphazard.

Thurman is an in-and-out fighter. But he won’t have the legs to do it for 12 rounds with a fighter like Fundora attacking him. I think Thurman will keep him vigorous. At some point he’s going to have to stand there and fight shoulder to shoulder, and it won’t be his fight because he won’t have his legs there. The only thing he could do was to strike strenuous, using his experience and choosing his moments. Step inside and catch it from a different perspective. He could also catch it from a long distance, but it had to be a right punch – a right from above or a left hook. He has the power to drop it, but it’s the only way. It won’t beat Fundora.

Who wins?

Fundora by stoppage at the end of the round. I think the horn will stop it. I don’t think Thurman can survive, especially at his age. The deeper the fight, the more hard it will be for him.

Danny Garcia, former junior welterweight and welterweight champion

How does Fundora win?

Take advantage of his youth, apply sharp pressure and keep Thurman in the final punches. Fundora should try to break the inactive Thurman. If he does that, I can see him winning by TKO at the end.

How does Thurman win?

Take advantage of his experience. Operate quick feet, sharp and tight defense, frustrate Fundora and try to land powerful, looping punches. If he does that, he could score a late-round KO like Mendoza did against Fundora.

Who wins?

I don’t see this fight having the distance. Thurman by KO.