As someone who deals with gambling (though admittedly I’m bad at it), I’m hesitant to give much betting advice. But since it’s the holiday season, I’d like to offer one amiable suggestion to American bettors: the next time a social media influencer-turned-boxer faces an busy two-time heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist, don’t bet on the YouTube guy.
At DraftKings, 90% of the bets placed and 90% of the money placed on the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight were on the underdog Paul. The bookmaker said he could have lost nearly $100 million if Paul, who finished 10-1 as an underdog on DraftKings, got upset. Instead, Joshua, a -1600 favorite, knocked him out in the sixth round and gave the American players another robust breakthrough.
“We were pleased with the outcome – the book did well and it was great to see so much interest in boxing,” Johnny Avello, director of sports operations, told ESPN on Sunday.
Seven years ago, when undefeated boxing champion Floyd Mayweather faced the UFC’s Conor McGregor, professional bettors bet on Mayweather, calling it the best betting opportunity of their lives. Meanwhile, the betting public sided with McGregor, even though he had never boxed professionally. Mayweather wore down McGregor and eventually knocked him out.
Eight years later, betting observers clearly haven’t learned their lesson after Friday’s Paul-Joshua fight. Kalshi’s forecasting market had volume in excess of $74 million in this fight, including a reportedly $183,954 position on Paul taken by one unfortunate client.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the fight returned only 20% of the amount wagered on the College Football Playoff opener between Alabama and Oklahoma.
“The fighting method was comparable to that of North Carolina State and Memphis the previous day,” said Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook. “Some solid bets [on Joshua] He came in through the edged guys who knew how huge of a mismatch the fight should have been on paper.”
While most bettors took a long shot on Paul, there were a select few who were willing to risk a lot to win at least a little on Joshua. High-stakes bettor Christopher Dierkes called the fight “probably one of the biggest upsets in any big-stage sport.” He made the fight hard and believed that Joshua’s price, even this high, was still a bargain. He risked $1,077,044 that Paul would not win the fight and earned $157,549. He said he had basically only one fear before the fight.
“The real risk in my opinion was the hardware factor, which I thought was possible – obviously it’s boxing, crazier things have happened,” Dierkes, chief trading officer at sports prediction exchange Novig, told ESPN. “But I didn’t put too much stock in it, considering Joshua was very popular, already very wealthy, and unlikely to ruin his Jake Paul reputation.”
NFL odds and endings
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Tennessee Titans as 3-point favorites. It was the Chiefs’ eighth loss this season in games in which they were betting favorites, tied with the 2014 Recent Orleans Saints, 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 1983 Recent York Jets for the most losses as a favorite in a single season in the Super Bowl era. The Chiefs have failed to overcome the spread in seven straight games, tied with the Buccaneers for the longest such busy streak.
The Carolina Panthers, who upset the Buccaneers as a compact underdog, picked up their eighth outright win of the season as an underdog, tying Washington in 2015 as the team with the most wins in a season as an underdog.
According to Feazel, the Seattle Seahawks’ Thursday victory over the Los Angeles Rams was the second-biggest win of the season for Caesars Sportsbook bettors. The biggest win for Caesars bettors was the Buffalo Bills’ 41-40 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.
College football odds
Alabama will start the week as a 7-point underdog against No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The Crimson Tide hasn’t finished a game with a lead of at least six points since the 2008 SEC Championship Game against Florida.
According to ESPN research, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has won 10 of his 14 games as an underdog in his coaching career, the best winning percentage of any coach who has been an underdog in at least 10 games since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.
Jose “Rayo” Valenzuela wants a crack at Floyd Schofield’s newly won WBA lightweight belt, yet business barriers give the champion little reason to grant a voluntary defense.
“@KidAustin11 let’s make it happen!” Valenzuela posted on X, a public challenge spotlighted by Ring Magazine.
Holding the No. 3 ranking with the WBA keeps Valenzuela in the title picture. It does not give him mandatory status, nor does it force Schofield to pick him.
Promotional and broadcast divisions form the real wall here. Valenzuela operates under the Zuffa banner on Paramount+, whereas Schofield fights for Golden Boy on DAZN. Finalizing a matchup requires cooperation across competing networks.
The bout lacks the massive box office pull needed to warrant a joint broadcast. A viable path would demand that one promoter let their fighter appear on rival airwaves, an unlikely concession for an optional defense.
Schofield took the vacant strap against Lucas Bahdi in Chicago on October 10. Holding the gold affords Golden Boy the luxury of handpicking far simpler matchups.
Valenzuela offers elite pedigree as a former 140-pound champion, paired with a tricky southpaw stance capable of testing the young titleholder. A victory over Rayo looks solid on paper, yet it delivers no extra hardware. Without a massive paycheck attached, the ring danger offers limited reward.
Valenzuela needs the sanctioning body in his corner. An official WBA mandatory order would ignite real negotiations instead of a digital callout the champion can safely ignore.
For now, Rayo is asking Schofield to take on a dangerous night with zero promotional upside. Posting on social media costs nothing; handing Golden Boy a financial incentive to say yes is another story entirely.
A voluntary defense across rival platforms only happens when enormous pots of cash force everyone to play nice. Paramount+ wants exclusive programming for Zuffa. DAZN guards its stable for Golden Boy. Neither network gains anything by lending talent without a massive pay-per-view haul to split.
Without Riyadh bankrolling the difference, the financial math completely falls apart. Oscar De La Hoya already mentioned keeping Schofield busy with William Zepeda in-house, or waiting on Gervonta Davis. Those routes keep every dollar inside their own broadcast tent. Taking on Rayo brings serious ring danger for ordinary television money.
Valenzuela is a heavy-handed southpaw capable of cracking anyone. Schofield touched the canvas against Lucas Bahdi in the eleventh round, so putting him in with Rayo right away makes zero sense for Golden Boy.
Unless the WBA forces a purse bid down the road, expect Golden Boy to completely ignore the callout.
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Shakur Stevenson is regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet, but one reigning world champion believes the Newark southpaw is ‘terrified’ of him.
Stevenson looked to be a level above Teofimo Lopez when they collided back in January, as Stevenson became the third-youngest four-division world champion in the rich history of the sport.
However, the unbeaten superstar is yet to fight since, despite informing O’Shaquie Foster that he could get his shot if able to defend his WBC super-featherweight world title against good friend, Raymond Ford, back in May.
Foster claimed a majority decision win to continue his second 130lb title reignbut talks for a clash between he and Stevenson then went quiet as the latter signed with Zuffa Boxing, whilst Foster eventually moved on to a three-belt unification with Emanuel Navarrete.
Speaking to Fight Hub TVFoster fumed at Stevenson for going back on his word and declared his belief that the 29-year-old is ‘terrified’ of him.
“I think that he is terrified of me and I think that he hopes that somebody else beats me so that he won’t have to ever fight me. He said it on Twitter, after Lamont [Roach] fought he was talking about ‘it is your time coming, I can’t wait to clown you on it.’ He is goofy.
“He is hoping that somebody else beats me, that is why he was hoping Ray Ford beat me, so that he can chat about it online instead of hopping in there himself with me.
“I am not a bully, but real guys know real guys. You sons, your mans, I beat ‘em up, why you ain’t trying to fight now?”
Navarrete-Foster takes place on Saturday, October 24, where ‘Ice Water’ could inch closer to becoming the first undisputed super-featherweight world champion since Hiroshi Kobayashi in 1969; a feat which Vasiliy Lomachenko is also trying to achieve.
Canelo Alvarez spends some time talking to Mike Coppinger on behalf of Ring Magazine about this state of his career, his October 31 title fight with Christian Mbilliwanting a rematch with Terence Crawfordand more. Read some excerpts from Canelo below with the full video in the link at the bottom.
“He’s a champion and he’s a very aggressive fighter. He go forward, throws a lot of punches and that make me excited because it’s good styles to make a good fight. Could be Fight of the Year.”
On why the fight was delayed from September
“Because I wasn’t ready. I have a little bit of problems with the family I need to fix and everything. And I like to have a pre-camp and then come to the training camp, so that’s why I postponed that fight because I learned from the past, you know…At this level [there’s a tiny margin for error] between win or lose.”
On what motivates him at this stage of his career
“I love boxing. Sometimes I try to say ‘why am I here if I accomplish everything?’ but I love boxing. That’s why I’m here, because I still love boxing and I enjoy it a lot.”
On a rematch with Crawford
“I hope so. If you realize that I always did good in my rematches. So, I always do good in the rematch so I hope that fight happens again…I just try to learn how much I can from the loss and from the other fights and get better, learn more and do better in the ring.
“[I’ve rewatched the Crawford fight] like five times, and it was very close. It’s not that much [that separates us]. But, yeah, it’s very [fine line between winning and losing] but I know what happened and I know my mistakes, and plus Crawford is a great fighter and you need to be 100%.”
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