UFC 329 is upon us, and Conor McGregor (MMA Gods willing) is back.

Assuming all goes as planned this week, McGregor will step into the octagon for the first time since 2001 to face longtime rival Max Holloway. Much has changed since McGregor beat Holloway 13 years ago. Championships. Age. Weight class. Somehow, their roads led to this, and it feels oddly fitting that another dance with Holloway will mark what should be the final chapter of McGregor's fighting career.

Is it enough for McGregor to just show up, or does he need to recapture the magic that vaulted him into unprecedented levels of fame and fortune? MMA Fighting's Jed Meshew, Damon Martin, and Alexander K. Lee debate the stakes of Saturday's main event for both stars, and what else to look for as the UFC rolls on to the second half of 2026.

1. What does success look like for Conor McGregor in 2026?

Meshew: Honestly, if he even looks competitive and not like a shell of his former self, that would be a huge win for McGregor. And that's not an indictment of him personally, but just an honest assessment of the situation.

McGregor has not fought in five years, and he hasn't won a fight in over six years. And the last time he did fight, he was already showing signs of decline, and then he suffered a catastrophic injury. None of that historically adds up to a sterling performance, especially when you add in that he's about to be 38 years old.

And then there's everything else. At the peak of his powers, McGregor was an offensive dynamo with a unique approach and skillset. That was a decade ago. His offense never looked the same up at 155 pounds, and now he's up at 170. Is that going to look remotely good? Probably not. Even if he'd been taking perfect care of himself (a big if), the man has put some mileage on.

For McGregor, this fight is all about reaching the end of his UFC contract so he can move on and make $500 million by doing superfights outside the promotion. It's a means to an end. And so for him, this is about looking viable enough to sell those fights in the future, and hopefully not taking too much damage in the process. We'll see if he can pull that off.

Martin: Not getting dominated and finished inside five rounds.

That's remarkably low expectations, but the reality is McGregor hasn't fought in five years, he's coming off a devastating injury similar to the same suffered by Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman—neither of whom looked the same afterwards—and turns 38 years old three days after his upcoming fight. When it comes to star power and attraction, McGregor still draws a massive crowd, but fighting is built around success, and “Notorious†hasn't tasted victory since 2020.

Sure, McGregor could lose, make all the excuses about the long layoff, and vow to come back better the next time, and maybe his sizable fanbase believes it. But it gets harder and harder to buy that he's still even a shadow of the pound-for-pound great that conquered two divisions a decade ago. So success for McGregor is hanging tough with a top 5-ranked fighter like Holloway and making it look good until it's over.

Given his past conditioning issues, it's tough to imagine McGregor looking down at the floor and slugging it out with Holloway to close the fight, but even hanging around that long would be considered a win at this stage of the game.

Lee: Not snapping his leg in two in the first 30 seconds of the fight? Too soon?

I'm probably the wrong person to ask here because my expectations for McGregor could not be lower. Putting aside the fact that McGregor is an absolute trash human being (though it can't be emphasized enough), he hasn't won a fight since 2020. I can admit he had his moments in both Dustin Poirier runbacks, but he lost. Twice. And let's not act like he's been dedicated to rest and recovery and reinvention these past five years. He's essentially cramming for a test, except the test is an MMA fight and Holloway is determining whether he makes the grade.

You want to know what success is for McGregor right now? Actually making the walk to the damn cage and moving one step closer to fighting out his contract.

2. Where does Max Holloway go with a loss?

As grim as my outlook is for McGregor, there's no denying that, at his very best, he's one of the most thrilling knockout artists in MMA history. Holloway will stand with him, he'll trade punches, and he'll trust his reflexes and chin to carry him through. But what if they can't anymore?

I'd never seen Holloway knocked out before. It happened. I've rarely seen him completely neutralized by grappling. It just happened. Is it so unreasonable to think his defense has degraded to the point that McGregor could cold him?

If that happens, Holloway's stock shouldn't drop too much, given how much the UFC and fans will always love him. It does close some doors, though, and puts an actual timetable on a potential retirement. We've watched Holloway grow up in the cage, and it felt like he would fight forever. Hard not to see the end of the road if he loses to McGregor.

Meshew: A loss would be pretty catastrophic for Max, because if it happens, it's not because McGregor wins a decision. When they were both babes in the woods, McGregor had enough of a skill gap over Holloway to take a fight to decision and win, but those days are long since gone. Max is a much more skilled fighter than Conor, and so for Notorious to win, he's got to rely on a KO.

But Max has one of the greatest chins in MMA history, and his style, in part, relies on it. So if Max gets got, after getting got by Ilia Topuria, it might spell the beginning of the end for “Blessed.â€

Martin: It would be devastating on a whole other level compares to falling to Charles Oliveira in a fight where he basically got taken down and outgrappled for 25 minutes.

All the reasons why the expectations are so low for McGregor would act in reverse for Holloway, who, at 34 years old, is no longer a young champion with a huge amount of experience. Holloway opened as a massive favorite for this fight, and while the gap in the odds has narrowed, that's likely built around McGregor fandom and the love of an underdog pick rather than sudden belief in the Irish superstar to pull off the upset.

The fight against McGregor is a temporary stop at welterweight for Holloway, who would have to return to a snakepit at lightweight where even a single loss can doom your forward progression for months if not years. A win for Holloway is huge because he already has one of the greatest knockouts in UFC history over current champion Justin Gaethje. But a loss to McGregor after already being dominated by Oliveira would put Holloway into dangerous territory where he's suddenly the guy younger contenders are hoping to build their names against.

3. What is your must-see fight outside of the main event?

Martin: The heavyweight division is dreadful right now. It might be the worst its ever been.

So here comes Olympic gold medalist and multi-time NCAA champion Gable Steveson as the last bastion of hope after Alex Pereira's triumphant move to a new division ended with him complaining about a referee rather than lighting even the briefest spark of excitement about the future of the weight class.

Make no mistake, Steveson is set up to win here. He's facing Elisha Ellison, a 5-2 heavyweight who got battered by Brando Pericic in his lone octagon appearance, and Steveson should roll to victory. The only real question is how long it takes him to deliver an emphatic finish.

But if Steveson can come out like a ball of fire with UFC GOAT Jon Jones in his corner and lay waste to Ellison on one of the biggest cards of the year, perhaps he can inject a little bit of enthusiasm for the future. With Tom Aspinall apparently healthy and ready to compete again and a rematch against Ciryl Gane expected later this year, along with Josh Hokit commanding a lot of attention right now (for better or worse) Steveson provides a prospect unlike any other in UFC history, and that's something the heavyweight division desperately needs right now.

Lee: I'm locked in to King Green vs. Terrance McKinney because even though the match makes a weird sort of sense, I have no clue how it's going to play out.

Will Green's veteran savvy prevail? Or will he be run over by McKinney's unmatched aggression? Is McKinney capable of winning a fight that goes past the first round? Or maybe Green is the one who finds the quick finish?

Honestly, flawless matchmaking, and the best possible way to kick off the first main card of the second half of the year.

Meshew: The thing I'm more impressed about with UFC 329 is that the card is not just good, it's great! Usually, when Conor McGregor is fighting, the UFC knows people will tune in, so they don't have to stack the rest of the card. But every main card fight this weekend is awesome, and many of the undercard bouts are, too.

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Brandon Royval should be electric, and Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista is probably the best fight of the whole event, but for me, I'm taking the low-hanging fruit and going for the co-main event: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett.

Look, we've all been hard on Pimblett, and not without reason. The man is a good fighter, but he also has huge, glaring flaws and hasn't fought much top opposition. But the Justin Gaethje fight, and what Gaethje went on to do afterward, means it's time for us to reconsider our hate for “The Baddy.â€

While Pimblett still looked weird and vulnerable in the fight, he also showed how tough he is, and also showed a pretty savvy understanding of fight tactics, tactics that the great Ilia Topuria forewent against Gaethje. Now, he faces a guy who is significantly more physically gifted than he is, but has shown his own distinct weaknesses. Can Pimblett's toughness and smarts get him the biggest win of his career? Or is Saint Denis going to continue his current run of form, which has him looking like one of the best lightweights on Earth?

It's a fascinating bout, and I'm pumped for it.