On Saturday at Madison Square Garden in Fresh York, Teofimo Lopez Jr. will stand on the line for the WBO junior welterweight title against Shakur Stevenson.

Lopez (22-1, 13 KO), former unified lightweight champion, defends his belt for the fourth time with a unanimous decision over Josh Taylor in June 2023 at the Theater at MSG. Since then, Lopez, who enters the fight as a +250 underdog according to DraftKings Sportsbook, has recorded decision wins over Jamaine Ortiz and Steve Claggett in 2024, followed by a win over Arnold Barboza Jr. last May. Although Lopez hasn’t recorded a stop since his seventh-round knockout of Pedro Campa in August 2022, he has turned in some dominant performances, particularly against Taylor and Barboza.

Lopez’s combination of power, footwork and athleticism could be the key to his success, especially if he can string together distance and landing combinations against a challenging target.

Stevenson (24-0, 11 KO), the current WBC lightweight champion, moves up to 140 pounds for the first time in his life as he looks to become a four-division world champion after world titles at featherweight, junior lightweight and lightweight. Widely considered one of boxing’s elite defensive technicians, Stevenson (-330 favorite) has been criticized at times for his conservative style, but his in-ring control and evasion have made him nearly untouchable as a professional. He also showed offensive superiority in a dominant victory over William Zepeda last July.

The matchup presents a classic stylistic contrast: Can Lopez solve Stevenson’s defense and impose his attack from within? Or will Stevenson control the range with his jab and footwork, neutralizing Lopez’s power?

Hall of Fame commentator Al Bernstein, former welterweight champion Shawn Porter and former junior middleweight champion Raul Marquez discuss how the fight could unfold and give their picks for the winner.

Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion

Fit

Lopez has those values ​​in boxing that can’t be taught – athleticism, explosiveness and strength. Stevenson was born with the ability to time and dictate the distance and pace of a fight. While Lopez may have more things to do in the ring, he needs to figure out what he needs to do and fight arguably the most unhittable boxer in the game, and most importantly, when to do it. It’s Stevenson’s fight to lose and Lopez’s fight to win.

How does Lopez win?

His patience will be key. He must start the fight with patience and take his time to land a robust blow. The more he tries this, the easier it will be for Stevenson to time him and establish his rhythm. If he fights with rhythm, using basic jabs and feints to find moments for throw combinations, his patience can facilitate set the pace of the fight and opportunities will come.

How does Stevenson win?

Stevenson just has to be himself to win. He likes his space and controls the pace very well. He needs to force Lopez to attack him and fight on the front foot. An aggressive opponent benefits Stevenson. If he doesn’t fight like himself, he may lose this way. He fought aggressively against Zepeda, so he knows he can’t do that against Lopez because he is also a real offensive threat. But as long as he fights like he always does – as a great counter puncher – he can win.

Anticipating the fight

I said it was Stevenson’s fight to lose, and if it’s someone else’s fight to lose, that means he should probably win. It’s strenuous to pick a fight, but I will say Stevenson will win.

Raul Marquez, former American Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst

Breaking the fight

I’m glad this fight will happen when it’s supposed to happen. I love the way Shakur fought in his last fight [William] Zepeda. We didn’t see him in his usual defensive mode. Coming forward, trading with Zepeda, he was very offensive and it was fun. Teofimo is one of those guys for whom the most crucial thing is how he wakes up on a given day. When Teofimo is on, he is a great and talented fighter. He is a student of the game. He is very confident, explosive and has great footwork. Shakur is a very wise fighter. He may not have the power of Lopez, but his ring intelligence and speed definitely make up for it.

This is boxing at the highest level. I think after three or four rounds Teofimo should take control. I really think it’s stronger and more powerful. But can he do it with Shakur? I don’t know.

How does Stevenson win?

Shakur has to box with jabs, straight shots to the center, and turning him around all the time. He must circle around him, keep his foot in the middle of the ring, stay away from the ropes and corners. He also has to strike in series and apply combinations. Grab it, hold it, lean on it, go back outside, jab it, double it and go to work. The key for him is to stay focused, composed and in the box.

How does Lopez win?

There will be three or four rounds of trying to understand each other, but sooner or later he will have to attack. When it’s on, it’s very elusive, comfortable, loose, and a lot of fun to be in there. When he does this, he is amazing and strenuous to beat. The key is to attack from all sides with combos, always pushing forward.

Anticipating the fight

I think Shakur should win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Teofimo won. I go with Teofimo, nervous.

Al Bernstein, boxing commentator and member of the International Boxing Hall of Fame

Fit

This is intriguing because Stevenson is a very good boxer and a decent puncher, and Lopez is also a good striking boxer. So these two in some ways, even though they’re lefty and righty, have a somewhat similar skill set. Although I think Stevenson is a cleaner boxer than Lopez. The gigantic question is: which Lopez will show up?

In terms of consistency, Stevenson would have the advantage, even though he had a few performances that people weren’t ecstatic with. But the other thing about this fight is that we don’t know if any of these fighters will come out a little out of character. Will we see Stevenson be more aggressive than he has been at times? I thought against it [William] Zepeda [in July]showed the outbreak of a major offensive. Or will Lopez take a more measured approach than we expect? People are always trying to put pressure on Stevenson because he is a pristine boxer – will Lopez, who has boxing skills, change his game? These are questions we can ask ourselves.

How does Lopez win?

It’s crucial for Lopez to give his all. And when he gives it his all, he is a very good fighter.

I think at his best he is the pure definition of a boxer-puncher, but maybe with an emphasis on punching. He has power and knocks people down. I think that’s what he’s going to need in this fight. He will want to be aggressive; you have to do this and he’s going to have to turn up the volume a little bit. I think Lopez is going to have to make sure he cuts his hands in this fight and that alone could facilitate him win rounds. There have been fights in the past where he has had a bit of a lull in his striking range, but he can’t let that happen.

If he stays busy, concentrates on both the body and head, and manages to cut through the ring – which he will have to do without chasing Stevenson – he has a chance to win.

How does Stevenson win?

I think he’s winning the way we always feel, winning fights by having really good boxing skills while also making sure he’s offensive enough to win rounds. Shakur better do enough offensively to secure rounds if the fight goes the distance, which could very likely be the case.

Anticipating the fight

The problem with betting against Stevenson is that Lopez loses and that Stevenson wins most of the rounds in his fights. And so you feel like you can control it all. Now it is unknown whether he will be able to control a fight in this weight class and whether he will be able to control Lopez. But I guess I’d give a slight nod to Stevenson, but I think it’s a pick ’em fight.