Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang meet in the main event of Saturday’s Queensberry vs Matchroom 5v5 clash in Riyad.
It’s a fight that could be a brutal heavyweight fight, could be a brutal (the other way around) heavyweight fight, and there is no clear favorite.
So who wins?
Scott Christ (23-4)
A year ago, I would never have guessed that we would witness such a major event headlined – albeit in the form of a replacement for a much better fight that was rejected – by “Joseph Parker’s Leftovers.”
I’m absolutely excited about the electrifying style battle between a man who doesn’t want to pull any punches and a man who has about half a night of work in the gas tank. Theoretically, Wilder’s right hand is still a devastating weapon. Theoretically, Zhang could hold his own and make the decision simply because Wilder has openly admitted that he’s already having trouble pulling the trigger and has never been the type of guy to try to win rounds.
Both can hit the shot. Maybe Wilder’s talk of the return of fire and the killer instinct isn’t just talk, as it almost always is. For the most part, I don’t know if this fight can be analyzed much beyond “if Wilder throws punches, he’ll probably win, and if he doesn’t, he probably won’t.” My pick is a true guess as to what we’ll get, even more than normal. Zhang UD-12
Will Esco (19-8)
This is a fight that could really go either way, as Wilder admits he’s struggled to pull the trigger lately, and Zhang actually has enough stamina to pose a real threat for the first half of the fight. If Zhang is going to get a win here, I suspect it will have to come sooner, because despite his lack of power, Wilder actually lands a punch behind schedule in the fight, and I don’t think Zhang will be able to either dodge or withstand the power after the midpoint.
I’m still torn because fighters struggling to throw punches is usually a telling sign of where they are in their career, and there is an obvious concern that Wilder will struggle in this regard again. That said, I’m still quite willing to go for the fitter player as I think Zhang will be a relatively open target for Wilder in the second half and I suspect Wilder won’t get hurt early on. Wilder by TKO-10
John Hansen (18-9)
Sorry Guillermo Rigondeaux: you can’t win a boxing match if you don’t throw punches. Power may be the last thing to go, but Deontay Wilder’s power won’t matter if he’s once again unable or unwilling to let go of his hands. And it doesn’t matter if Zhilei Zhang has a circumscribed fuel tank as long as he never has to burn that fuel to move or protect himself.
For years, the question about Wilder has been how great he could have been if he had added X or Y to his circumscribed arsenal rather than just relying on that nuclear bomb. Now, after Parker’s death, he speaks openly about his inability to pull the trigger when necessary. A glance at my record at the bottom of this competition is clear evidence that I often completely misread these situations, but these problems only trend in one direction as players age and I simply don’t see Wilder magically finding his way back a spark in a fight against a bigger, stronger opponent than the one who frostbitten his hands. Zhang UD-12
Patryk Stumberg (22-5)
While it’s weird that I’m saying this about a fight between one-punch knockout artists with circumscribed performance, I feel like cardio will be the deciding factor here. Wilder notoriously shows his power behind schedule, and while his pace isn’t there to tire out the average opponent, the same can be said for Joseph Parker and Zhang, who remain fired up despite landing less than 25 punches per round. I don’t see him solving this problem any time soon. Of course, any one of these punches is enough to knock a man down, but Wilder is extremely complex to get rid of. I still remember how he shrugged off an absolute attack from Luis Ortiz before taking him down.
While Zhang did show off his chin against Filip Hrgovic, I don’t think he can match Wilder’s right hand, especially with an empty gas tank.
This is all assuming Wilder lets his hands go, but I feel inclined to show more love to the guy who wouldn’t land multiple punches on Parker than to the one who physically couldn’t do it. Expect a long staring contest with some quality punches from Zhang before he succumbs once again to the age of 41 and almost 300 pounds, opening the door for Wilder to turn the lights off. Wilder KO-7
Quick choices!
Daniel Dubois vs. Filip Hrgovic
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Scott: Hrgovic via TKO-10
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You want: Hrgovic UD-12
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John: Dubois via TKO-8
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Patrick: Hrgovic UD-12
Raymond Ford vs. Nick Ball
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Scott: TKO-11 ball
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You want: Ford UD-12
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John: SD-12 ball
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Patrick: Ford UD-12
Hamzah Sheeraz vs. Austin “Ammo” Williams
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Scott: Sheeraz UD-12
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You want: Sheeraz UD-12
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John: Williams KO-10
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Patrick: Sheeraz TKO-4
Craig Richards vs. Willy Hutchinson
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Scott: Hutchinson SD-12
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You want: Richards UD-12
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John: Richards UD-12
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Patrick: Richards via TKO-9
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