The history of the odds was as fascinating as the Tyson Fury vs. Aleksander Usyk. These two have been the numero uno and numero dos(ser) of the division for almost three years now, and with the order being chopped and rearranged in many people’s eyes, each fighter’s chances of winning have followed suit.
As recently as last December, Oleksandr Usyk was an 11/5 (+220) underdog, and the needle was moving to see him as a 20/23 (-115) favorite just six weeks later. Now the Ukrainian is balanced at Evens (+100), and Fury is a slight 4/5 (-125) favorite in Riyad.
So if the outcome of the fight is a coin toss, prop markets can certainly have some value and where better to start than with up and down action. Tyson Fury has been knocked down seven times in his career despite never losing a fight, and as the “Gypsy King” enters the latter stages of his career, his reflexes and ability to move the 36-minute distance have certainly suffered. 11/2 (+550) is the price for taking Fury down and winning the fight (something he’s already done on four separate occasions), and if you both want a powerful canvas, then 10/1 (+1000) is a pretty lofty sacrifice.
The fury is certainly decreasing, but how steep is it? His second fight against Deontay Wilder in 2020 seems like it was a long time ago, and all we’ve seen since the start of 2022 are a couple of dud performances against Derek Chisora and Francis Ngannou. But Usyk himself is not completely stripped of the rest of the ring. The difference is how Fury’s weight issues have taken a toll on his body throughout his career compared to Usyk, who has gradually worked his way up to heavyweight and now looks fit.
Fury’s awkward, spidery style is a nightmare for any heavyweight, and his 34-0-1 (24) record backs up that assessment, but if there’s one man who can crack that code, it’s the agile, well-trained Usyk. If Usyk manages to get inside Fury, those compact, keen combinations and uppercuts could very well start cutting down the tree and questioning the balance of a man who has been known to fall. With that in mind, Usyk’s stoppage win is a value pick out of four at a solid 5/1 (+500).
We know that Fury can be hurt and we know that Fury can be cut, but most of all we know what a talent Oleksandr Usyk is. Usyk will likely be the best fighter Fury has ever stepped into the ring with, and with a career filled with drama, it’s strenuous to imagine this fight going to zero.
The co-main event in Arabia will be the performance of the man who will probably be the next to enter the heavyweight discussion: Jai Opetai. Nearly two years after winning the IBF cruiserweight title from Mairis Briedis, the duo is set to dance again, and Briedis has been out of action ever since. At the beginning of 2025, Briedis will turn 40 and it is challenging to imagine how the Latvian will take revenge for who could be the current player with the highest ceiling.
Opetaia is 1/7 (-700) to win the fight, which is pretty much impossible to make up for, but that goes up significantly to 8/11 (-138) if you want Briedis to be stopped for the first time in his career. It wasn’t that long ago that Briedis was running after Jake Paul dressed as Mario and singing him birthday songs, so I think we could be forgiven for assuming that his whole heart wasn’t 100% focused on fighting – what better than a Saudi day paycheck that will send you into retirement? Briedis’ odds of regaining the title are 9/2 (+450) and it’s strenuous to justify the support with any belief.
Further down the bill we have the return of Sergei Kovalev as an 11/10 (+110) underdog against Robin Sirwan Safar, and like me the bookmakers threw a few darts at the wall here, trying to see what would work. Kovalev is a shadow of his dominant form and, most importantly, has had one fight since November 2019. Safar is a 4/6 (-150) favorite, but without experience in substantial fights it is impossible to judge his true level. That being said, a fit and vigorous cruiserweight ranked in the organization’s top 15 rankings should probably be able to beat Kovalev at 200 pounds.
Safar’s stoppage win in this 10-rounder is 6/4 (+150) and probably the best bet in a tiny, undeveloped field.
Elsewhere, Frank Sanchez and Agit Kabayel put their 24-0 records on the line to throw their hats onto the heavyweight title stage after Fury-Usyk. Sanchez is a 4/9 (-225) favorite here, but I don’t see this fight blowing up, so a 4/7 (-175) distance fight seems the most reasonable bet if needed. It just feels like that ugly heavyweight fight you see on the undercards that goes on and on with nothing of note actually happening.
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