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Fury vs Usyk odds make Tyson the narrow favorite in the undisputed clash

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Fury vs Usyk odds make Tyson the narrow favorite in the undisputed clash

The history of the odds was as fascinating as the Tyson Fury vs. Aleksander Usyk. These two have been the numero uno and numero dos(ser) of the division for almost three years now, and with the order being chopped and rearranged in many people’s eyes, each fighter’s chances of winning have followed suit.

As recently as last December, Oleksandr Usyk was an 11/5 (+220) underdog, and the needle was moving to see him as a 20/23 (-115) favorite just six weeks later. Now the Ukrainian is balanced at Evens (+100), and Fury is a slight 4/5 (-125) favorite in Riyad.

So if the outcome of the fight is a coin toss, prop markets can certainly have some value and where better to start than with up and down action. Tyson Fury has been knocked down seven times in his career despite never losing a fight, and as the “Gypsy King” enters the latter stages of his career, his reflexes and ability to move the 36-minute distance have certainly suffered. 11/2 (+550) is the price for taking Fury down and winning the fight (something he’s already done on four separate occasions), and if you both want a powerful canvas, then 10/1 (+1000) is a pretty lofty sacrifice.

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The fury is certainly decreasing, but how steep is it? His second fight against Deontay Wilder in 2020 seems like it was a long time ago, and all we’ve seen since the start of 2022 are a couple of dud performances against Derek Chisora ​​and Francis Ngannou. But Usyk himself is not completely stripped of the rest of the ring. The difference is how Fury’s weight issues have taken a toll on his body throughout his career compared to Usyk, who has gradually worked his way up to heavyweight and now looks fit.

Fury’s awkward, spidery style is a nightmare for any heavyweight, and his 34-0-1 (24) record backs up that assessment, but if there’s one man who can crack that code, it’s the agile, well-trained Usyk. If Usyk manages to get inside Fury, those compact, keen combinations and uppercuts could very well start cutting down the tree and questioning the balance of a man who has been known to fall. With that in mind, Usyk’s stoppage win is a value pick out of four at a solid 5/1 (+500).

We know that Fury can be hurt and we know that Fury can be cut, but most of all we know what a talent Oleksandr Usyk is. Usyk will likely be the best fighter Fury has ever stepped into the ring with, and with a career filled with drama, it’s strenuous to imagine this fight going to zero.

The co-main event in Arabia will be the performance of the man who will probably be the next to enter the heavyweight discussion: Jai Opetai. Nearly two years after winning the IBF cruiserweight title from Mairis Briedis, the duo is set to dance again, and Briedis has been out of action ever since. At the beginning of 2025, Briedis will turn 40 and it is challenging to imagine how the Latvian will take revenge for who could be the current player with the highest ceiling.

Opetaia is 1/7 (-700) to win the fight, which is pretty much impossible to make up for, but that goes up significantly to 8/11 (-138) if you want Briedis to be stopped for the first time in his career. It wasn’t that long ago that Briedis was running after Jake Paul dressed as Mario and singing him birthday songs, so I think we could be forgiven for assuming that his whole heart wasn’t 100% focused on fighting – what better than a Saudi day paycheck that will send you into retirement? Briedis’ odds of regaining the title are 9/2 (+450) and it’s strenuous to justify the support with any belief.

Further down the bill we have the return of Sergei Kovalev as an 11/10 (+110) underdog against Robin Sirwan Safar, and like me the bookmakers threw a few darts at the wall here, trying to see what would work. Kovalev is a shadow of his dominant form and, most importantly, has had one fight since November 2019. Safar is a 4/6 (-150) favorite, but without experience in substantial fights it is impossible to judge his true level. That being said, a fit and vigorous cruiserweight ranked in the organization’s top 15 rankings should probably be able to beat Kovalev at 200 pounds.

Safar’s stoppage win in this 10-rounder is 6/4 (+150) and probably the best bet in a tiny, undeveloped field.

Elsewhere, Frank Sanchez and Agit Kabayel put their 24-0 records on the line to throw their hats onto the heavyweight title stage after Fury-Usyk. Sanchez is a 4/9 (-225) favorite here, but I don’t see this fight blowing up, so a 4/7 (-175) distance fight seems the most reasonable bet if needed. It just feels like that ugly heavyweight fight you see on the undercards that goes on and on with nothing of note actually happening.

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Analysis

On July 20, Junto Nakatani will face Vincent Astrolabio

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On July 20, Junto Nakatani will face Vincent Astrolabio

Viva promotion announced today WBC bantamweight champion Junto Nakatani will face mandatory challenger Vincent Astrolabio on July 20 at Tokyo’s Ariake Arena.

Nakatani (27-0, 20 KOs) won his third weight class last February, torching the tough-as-nails Alexandro Santiago to cement his place in the weight class at just 26 years senior. The Japanese bantamweight quadrumvirate of Nakatani, Takuma Inoue, Yoshiki Takei and Ryosuke Nishida are set for a few tantalizing unification bouts, but first he’ll have to fulfill his duty as champion.

Astrolabio (19-4, 14 KOs), seemingly fried after a 3-2 slump, immediately turned his career around after a loss to Guillermo Rigondeaux in 2022. He then parlayed that win into a Showtime appearance against Nikolai Potapov and took full advantage, stopping Potapov in six rounds to set up a vacant WBO title shot against Jason Moloney.

Although he struggled with Moloney’s boxing skills en route to a majority decision defeat, the WBC slotted him into another eliminator, where he demolished Nawaphon Kaikanha in hostile territory.

Astrolabio looks outclassed here, but he can give it his all, and Nakatani isn’t afraid to mix it up. We’ll keep you posted when the card is ready.

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Analysis

Lomachenko proves class is robust as Fury vs Usyk fight week approaches

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Lomachenko proves class is durable as Fury vs Usyk fight week approaches

Saturday night seemed to provide us with a timely reminder of Vasiliy Lomachenko’s greatness, even as we were waning from the impact of his extraordinary career.

I think the sense of taking the 36-year-old for granted is reflected in our combined pound-for-pound rankings, with Loma not receiving a single vote to place her in the top 10 in April’s rankings. Is this an oversight, or simply a case of recent bias in the form of a desire to include fresher faces?

Either way, Lomachenko showed flashes of his former dominant moniker, “No-mas-chenko,” as he stopped hometown favorite George Kambosos in the 11th round of a one-sided fight in Perth, once again earning him a place on the list as the champion of the 135-pound weight class he was forced to spend six years competing in, despite being half a stone lighter than his natural weight.

It was a joy to see Loma willing to go all out to finish Down Under, rather than simply go for another points victory. Perhaps his disputed loss to Devin Haney on questionable scorecards has given him an extra grit and determination this time around as he looks towards the future superfights that will cap off his legendary career.

Watching Lomachenko in all his glory is still one of them the the best sights to see in a state-of-the-art boxing ring. A modest 18-3 pro record might make an outsider look over his resume, but on his day he could still be one of the sport’s main attractions.

Perhaps, unfortunately, that trend seems set to continue as Gervonta “Tank” Davis’ name begins to be mentioned as Lomachenko’s next target at 135. Much like Orlando Salido came in too early in his pro career, “Tank” may prove to be too delayed and too huge for a man who simply won’t say no.

In the co-main event, Andrew Moloney announced his retirement after what he believed was a disastrous decision loss to Mexico’s Pedro Guevara. Our Friday betting preview suggests that the 9/5 scorecard was the obvious choice for the underdog in a fight that was packed with action and hard-fought action – one where form quickly fades and rounds are firm to come by.

Moving on in front of the home crowd, Moloney may be starting to rue his post-fight tantrum. Both he and his brother Jason simply underperformed in back-to-back defeats at the weekend, handing the decision over to the judges and their interpretations.

The British scene saw Denzel Bentley deliver a brutal KO victory over Danny Dignum to claim the international middleweight belt, Archie Pointed improve to 24-0 at super featherweight, Lauren Price claim the welterweight world title against Jessica McCaskill and Rhys Edwards remain unbeaten in a fight to tip Thomas Patrick Ward for the WBA intercontinental featherweight title. But all of this seemed like a precursor to the build-up to Fury-Usyk this week in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

In typical John Fury fashion, Tyson Fury’s father made headlines on Monday by headbutting a member of Usyk’s team, lighting up the match on a day of chaos in the kingdom.

The fighters have managed to shake off most of the distractions as they prepare for one of the most significant and high-profile fights of the last few decades. Both men look focused, in shape (as bad as Fury ever looks), and the path to the undisputed heavyweight title seems clear after years of hesitation and doubt.

There is of course excitement about the competition, but there are sobering realities in the lives of Saudi citizens that will be ignored amid such fanfare. I spoke with Wajeeh Lion – a gay man in exile from Saudi Arabia – for The Guardian to highlight some of the growing concerns about boxing’s involvement in Saudi Arabia’s sports laundry.

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Analysis

IBF orders Canelo Alvarez to fight William Scull

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IBF orders Canelo Alvarez to fight William Scull

With speculation mounting about Canelo Alvarez’s next opponent, the IBF has decided to withdraw the IBF and ultimately order him to face long-time mandatory challenger William Scull. Scull’s promoter, AGON Sports and Events, claims the couple has four weeks to reconcile and avoid the auction.

The Cuban-born, German-based Scull (22-0, 9 KOs) has exactly one notable victory to his name: a July 2022 decision over Evgeny Shvedenko in the final. He has been booked for eight rounds or less in each of his last three fights, including a stoppage of Sean Hemphill on Canelo’s (61-2-2, 39 KOs) last undercard.

There’s no doubt that Scull is Canelo’s least well-known and least lucrative opponent since Avni Yildirim, who was also an inadequate mandatory. There’s always the possibility of paying Scull to come back to the bench, like Jermell Charlo did with Bakhram Murtazaliev, but that’s entirely up to Scull to play ball. Canelo and company could also theoretically make the case that WBA was next in the rotation that led to the Edgar Berlanga fight.

As Jake Donovan points out in The Ring, this isn’t Canelo’s first clash with the IBF, which famously stripped him in 2019 when he failed to make peace with Sergiy Derevyanchenko. It remains to be seen whether Canelo’s refusal to accept mandatory challenges will come back to bite him.

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