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Zepeda vs Hughes: Expert Predictions and Analysis

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Zepeda vs Hughes: Expert Predictions and Analysis

William Zepeda and Maxi Hughes will face off on Saturday night on DAZN from Las Vegas in a 12-round lightweight main event.

Zepeda (29-0, 25 KO) is the clear favorite in this fight, but veteran Hughes (26-6-2, 5 KO) has been on a sizzling streak over the past three years and appears to be in line after his victory over George Kambosos Jr in his last performance.

Can Hughes pull off another upset, or will it be William Zepeda’s turn?

Who will win Zepeda vs Hughes?

Scott Christ (6-1)

Zepeda is not a good fit for Hughes. I really don’t think I have much more to say, so luckily there are three other people who can say more and I can write this half-assed concise effort in this matter.

I just don’t see anything that Hughes can do with this guy if Zepeda is as good as I think he is. However, I think that Hughes has a knack for awkwardness; my vision of Criswell is a break that most people don’t think is necessary, even though he’s miles away from fighting and has no path to victory. Zepeda TKO-10

Will Esco (5-2)

It’s difficult to say anything other than that the chips were tilted in Hughes’ favor in that fight with William Zepeda. Regardless of how you watched the Hughes-George Kambosos fight, that fight certainly doesn’t give me any confidence in Hughes’ chances against the younger, stronger, and more confident Zepeda, who was just taking care of business.

Hughes has been broken and stopped before and I think this is a similar scenario where he drops out halfway through the fight. Zepeda TKO-6

John Hansen (6-1)

Outside of maybe Tank Davis, William Zepeda is the absolute worst 135-pound matchup for Maxie Hughes. That said, Hughes is a sharp, seasoned professional, and we’ve already seen JoJo Diaz handle a programmed Zepeda until the final bell. It can be done, and the same things that make Hughes very unlikely to find a path to victory also give him a good chance of going the distance.

Hughes can’t and won’t try to hang with Zepeda. That means we won’t see a fight as close as Zepeda vs. Alvarado, but it also means Hughes shouldn’t end the fight early like Mercito Gesta and Jaime Arboleda. With respect and apologies for what JoJo Diaz may have done in his early 70s Elvis cosplay, Hughes is probably the most tactically complete and cunning opponent Zepeda has ever faced. I don’t think Hughes can stop Zepeda, or even hurt him enough to snail-paced him down. I think Hughes can outlast him. Zepedas UD-12

Patrick Stumberg (6-1)

Hughes is a feel-good story no matter how you slice it. Left for dead after a string of tough domestic defeats, he simply scored nervously after nervously after nervously to fight his way onto the world stage. To be given this chance after that Kambosos squabble is a occasional case of justice and redress in a sport known for leaving the unfortunate to fend for themselves.

This just doesn’t bode well for him.

The problem with Kambosos is that he really isn’t very good at leading. His best skill, which plays so beautifully off of Teofimo Lopez’s worst habits, is his ability to punish overextension with strikes. Hughes’ footwork and timing were excellent at countering, but giving Zepeda that much slack was asking for trouble. “El Camaron” isn’t a raw slum like Jovanni Straffon; he has the skills to hunt down Hughes and do some sedate damage.

This screams “snowball” as Hughes outmaneuvers Zepeda early on, then Zepeda’s volume and body attack snail-paced his feet and force him to endure increasingly brutal combinations in the pocket. Zepeda’s score round after round reaches triple digits by the mid-distance and ultimately secures a finish at the end of the race. Zepeda TKO-10

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Analysis

Carlos Cuadras vs Andrew Moloney joins Lomachenko vs Kambosos

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Carlos Cuadras vs Andrew Moloney joins Lomachenko vs Kambosos

In January, Top Rank announced that Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. George Kambosos Jr. on May 11 would be a “title tripleheader.” Nina Hughes vs. Cherneka Johnson was reportedly taking one of the spots, though that had not yet been finalized and it seemed likely that one of the Moloney brothers would take the other spot.

Jason was the presumed choice since he currently holds the WBO bantamweight title, but news broke last week that he would instead face undefeated Yoshiki Takei at the Naoya Inoue vs. Luis Nery event the week before.

But now Dan Rafael he discovers that Andrew will be fighting Carlos Cuadras for the interim WBC super flyweight title in Perth. I guess that’s an excuse because it’s a secondary belt, but technically right is still right.

Cuadras (42-5-1, 28 KOs), two years removed from his upset loss to “Bam” Rodriguez, suffered two early knockdowns against Pedro Guevara and fended off a overdue surge to win the title in November. The win was supposed to set up a third fight with full champion Juan Francisco Estrada, but with “El Gallo” approaching a June date with Rodriguez, it’s worth keeping busy.

Moloney (26-3, 16 KOs) is 1-3 (1 NC) in title fights, having defeated Elton Dharry for the WBA interim belt in 2019, coming up empty-handed in three WBA “world” fights with Joshua Franco and last May suffering the 2023 KO of the Year in a WBO title fight against Junto Nakatani. He’s still a solid fighter though and will have home-field advantage against the degenerating Cuadras, so we should be in trouble.

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Analysis

Christian Mbilli signs with Top Rank

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Christian Mbilli signs with Top Rank

Following in the footsteps of Artur Beterbiev, undefeated super middleweight contender Christian Mbilli has signed a “long-term promotional agreement with Top Rank,” which will see him work with long-time promoter Eye of the Tiger Management.

“It’s an honor for me to have this joint promotion with Top Rank,” said Mbilli. “We all know the power of promoters and the significant role they play in the world of boxing. With Top Rank and Eye of the Tiger joining forces, I’m sure I’ll have an unbeatable team as we head towards the world championship. A huge thank you to my team who are once again demonstrating their tough work in this incredible partnership!”

Mbilli (26-0, 22 KOs), who reached the middleweight quarterfinals in Rio in 2016 before losing to eventual gold medalist Arlen Lopez, is The Ring’s No. 1 seed. He’s ranked No. 3 at 168 and in the top five by all four sanctioning bodies. After feasting on the lower and middleweight divisions of the super middleweight division for about a half-decade, he announced his arrival on the world stage by defeating Carlos Gongora in one of his 2023 Fights of the Year, then torched Demond Nicholson and gave Rohan Murdock one of the most uncomfortable beatings I can remember.

The substantial question now is where does he go from here? Top Rank’s super middleweight roster is nonexistent, and the biggest names in EotTM are:

  • 26-year-old Cuban prospect Osleys Iglesias, who is being pushed for a decent match, but for now will (and should) be kept away from Mbilla.
  • Erik Bazinyan, who has been treading water with trash opposition for several years now and is clearly refusing to take the next step in his career.

Virtually every other high-profile super middleweight is affiliated with PBC or DAZN, and since Canelo will only sit on the belts for as long as the sanctioning bodies allow him to, it’s unlikely Mbilli’s promoters will be able to secure major opponents via solicited offers.

Considering this is the definition of high risk, low reward, Bob Arum and Camille Estephan will have to work overtime.

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Analysis

Joseph Adorno vs Nicholas Walters to headline ProBox on March 27

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Joseph Adorno vs Nicholas Walters to headline ProBox on March 27

In a matchup that is both bizarre and captivating, lightweight contender Joseph Adorno will face former featherweight champion Nicholas Walters during the ProBox telecast on March 27 in Plant City, Florida.

“Blessed Hands” Adorno (18-3-2, 15 KOs) is and always has been a phenomenally talented fighter, but destitute discipline, an unwillingness to let go of his hands and constant weight issues have kept his record at 4-3-2 the last four years. Although his biggest win came in February 2023, when he defeated Hugo Alberto Roldan, he has failed to win in subsequent fights against Elvis Rodriguez and Edwin De Los Santos.

He then defeated Jonathan Perez 41-38 last November, and now faces another contender on the comeback trail in Walters (28-1-1, 22 KOs).

“The Axe Man” briefly reigned as the world’s most feared featherweight with fights against Vic Darchinyan and Nonito Donaire, but lost his featherweight title to Miguel Marriaga. After moving up to 130 pounds, he fought Jason Sosa to a draw before beginning the infamous “No Mas-chenko” streak, dropping out in seven.

The 2016 fight seemed to spell the end of his career, but he returned to action in 2023 with two wins over Colombian cannon fodder. He’s 38 years antique and last weighed 148, so chances are he doesn’t have much left in the tank, but Adorno is a truly incredible fighter who has no successes.

Honestly, I think the risk of both of them not gaining weight is non-zero.

“I have made huge changes in my personal life, which are reflected in my boxing career,” Adorno said. “Everything is positive and has a direction.”

“I have matured not only as a fighter, but also as a person,” Adorno said. “I think I can fulfill my potential at ProBox TV and work towards becoming a world champion.”

“Of course I respect him,” Adorno said of Walters. “He is a former world champion. But I will show that I am at a completely different level than people expect.

“In this fight, I want to show that I’m back and I’m feeling better and better. Walters is on his way to becoming a world champion, so I’ll fight him on March 27 live on ProBox TV.”

In other notable fights of the evening, 22-year-old super lightweight Jesus Saracho (13-1-1, 11 KOs) takes on ShoBox veteran Starling Castillo (18-1-1, 13 KOs), featherweight contender and former Olympic reserve David Navarro (6-1, 3 KOs) meets Justin Goodson (8-0, 8 KOs)

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